East Asia: Deficits in N China, surplus in Tibetan Plateau

3 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in May 2024 anticipates widespread deficits in northern China, and intense pockets of surplus to occur in southwestern regions of the country, particularly in the Tibetan Plateau.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in several areas, including:

Northern China, widespread throughout central to western Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and southern regions of Xinjiang Uygur. These deficits also continue further south into western regions of the Loess Plateau.
Eastern China, in areas north of Yongding River and throughout the Hebei province.
Southern China, west of the Jialang River in the Sichuan Basin.
Japan, throughout eastern and northwestern coastal regions of Honshu. On the island of Hokkaido, similarly intense deficits are expected in eastern coastal regions.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southwestern China, throughout the Tibetan Plateau and in southeastern Qinghai.
Northeastern China, in southern regions of the Eastern Manchurian Plain, and widespread in areas along the Ussuri River.
South Korea, primarily in areas south of the Namham River.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2023, most intense anomalies are expected to dissipate throughout China, leaving some small areas of extreme to exceptional surplus in western China, near the shared border of northern Tibet and southern Xinjiang. Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to persist in central Xinjiang, which continue into southern Qinghai and central Inner Mongolia. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to continue in southeastern Jilin and in eastern Heilongjiang. In Japan, deficits in Honshu and Hokkaido are expected to persist but lessen in magnitude.

From December through February 2024, surplus anomalies in western China are expected to continue, with deficits in southern Qinghai and Inner Mongolia mostly disappearing, becoming abnormal deficit conditions. Small areas of southernmost Yunnan are expected to see an emergence of moderate to severe surplus. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in Jilin, but disappear in Japan.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2024 – surplus is expected to increase in magnitude throughout the Tibetan Plateau, spreading throughout most of southwestern China. Deficits in Inner Mongolia are expected to continue decreasing in magnitude, as well as similar deficits in Jilin. Moderate surplus is expected to disappear in southern Yunnan, but emerge in southwestern coastal regions near Hong Kong.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in China is affecting yields of tea leaves and disrupting the country’s tea industry. China is the world’s leading producer of tea leaves, but spring harvests reportedly fell by 20%. In addition, the drought is also affecting the taste of the surviving crops, altering the flavor of the beverage.

Experts from the China Meteorological Administration help a press conference on September 5th to announce that precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China, eastern and southern Xinjiang, central and western Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, and northwestern Heilongjiang was significantly lower than the historical average, with drought persisting in eastern Xinjiang, central and western Inner Mongolia, northeastern Qinghai, most of Gansu, and parts of Ningxia, and severe drought in central Gansu.

Jia Xiaolong, deputy director of the National Climate Center, said at the press conference that since June, there has been less precipitation in several regions, including central and western Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia. These successive droughts have affected the safety of rural drinking water, as well as livestock and autumn grain crop growth.

Over 36,000 citizens of Fuzhou, the capital of China’s Fujian province, were evacuated on September 6th as typhoon Haikui made landfall, bringing intense rainstorms to the region. Torrential rains suspended schools across the city, closing resorts and parks, as well as inflicting damage to 147 townships of the city, causing a loss of the equivalent of $76 million.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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