Africa: Deficits to expand across N Africa

24 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits in northern African countries will expand to cover other countries, such as Niger and southern Libya. Transitional conditions in the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to disappear, becoming deficits, while Tanzania can expect intense, persisting surplus.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficits and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

In Mauritania, Mali, Algeria, Niger, Sudan, and Chad, widespread throughout the majority of each country.
The majority of southern Libya.
Western coastal regions of West Sahara.
Northern regions of Ethiopia, in areas neighboring Eritrea and Djibouti.
South-central Democratic Republic of Congo, in the Lomami Province, as well as in most regions of Botswana, western to northeastern Zimbabwe, western coastal regions of Angola and Namibia, and western Madagascar.

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in:

Tanzania, widespread throughout the country, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Mtwara Region.
Ghana, appearing in most southern to central regions, which continue east along the Gulf of Guinea into southernmost regions of Nigeria.
Much of Sierra Leone.
Southern regions of Somalia, west of the city of Mogadishu.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 indicates that most exceptional anomalies in the continent will mostly vanish, though some regions may still experience intense deficits, such as regions within southeastern Chad, northwestern Ethiopia, and westernmost regions of Central African Republic. Further south, Tanzania and northern Mozambique can anticipate widespread severe to extreme surpluses, with similarly intense surpluses occurring nearby in southwestern Kenya and southern Somalia. In western Africa, coastal regions of Ghana, Togo, and Nigeria can anticipate moderate surplus.

From January through March 2024, exceptional deficits in central African countries are expected to noticeably increase in span, occurring in southeastern Ethiopia, northern regions of South Sudan, northern Central African Republic, and southeastern Chad. East-central regions of Nigeria can also expect isolated instances of exceptional deficit. Throughout most of Tanzania and Uganda, severe to extreme surplus is expected to occur, also appearing in southwestern regions of Kenya and Somalia. Additionally, moderate to severe surplus is anticipated in southern coastal regions of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, as well as along the Nile River.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions in northern and southern regions of Africa, though severe to extreme deficits are expected to appear in pockets of southeastern Libya, central Niger, northwestern Algeria, southeastern Chad, and northeastern Sudan. In Tanzania and Uganda, surpluses are expected to continue, but will somewhat decrease in intensity, becoming mostly moderate to severe surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Water shortages caused a 400-megawatt electricity shortage in Tanzania, which in turn forced power rationing throughout the country. Tanzania’s national grid, which was already suffering from broken infrastructure, is running at reduced capacity due to a lack of sufficient water levels at hydropower dams. As of September 28th, only 38% of citizens have power. The Tanzanian government expects to resolve the nation’s power crisis by the end of March 2024.

As southern Botswana faces an unprecedented water crisis, the government is planning to transport 495 million m3 of water a year from the Chobe-Zambezi river via a 1,500 km pipeline network to alleviate shortages. The country’s Water Utilities Corporation (WUC) intends to complete a partnership for the project, which is expected to be issued soon. According to the WUC’s schedule, a company will be appointed by the end of 2024 to oversee and transfer the project to the State of Botswana.

New research presented October 16th demonstrated how the Garamantian Empire, an ancient Saharan civilization, survived living in the Sahara Desert by extracting groundwater, helping sustain the civilization for nearly a millennia. The Garamantes lived in southwestern Libyan from 400 BCE to 400 CE in arid conditions similar to the Sahara of today, and were the first society to establish itself in a desert that lacked a continuously flowing river. Experts explained that the Garamantes were able to access water stored underground, in what could potentially be one of the largest aquifers in the world.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags