United States: Deficits continue in Upper Midwest, PNW

25 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates isolated pockets of intense deficits to continue in midwestern states, southern states, and the Pacific Northwest, but are expected to decrease in magnitude. Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to continue but similarly decrease in magnitude, particularly in western states and in northern Alaska.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of June 2024.

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Nevada, throughout the majority of the state. These anomalies continue east into much of western to southwestern Utah into northwestern regions of Arizona, in areas within Mohave County.
Southern Maine, with widespread surpluses continuing throughout the entirety of Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, western to central Massachusetts, southeastern New York, and northwestern Pennsylvania.
Southern Florida, in areas southeast of Lake Okeechobee.

Exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Alaska, throughout the entirety of the Seward Peninsula, continuing east further inland to western regions of the Yukon-Koyukuk Region.
Wyoming, in areas within the Wind River Reservation, which move northeast into areas in Washakie County.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Louisiana, widespread throughout the majority of the state. These deficits continue into southwestern Mississippi, in areas throughout Wilkinson County.
Northeastern Iowa, within and in surrounding areas of Black Hawk County. Further north, similar deficits are anticipated in northern to central Minnesota in areas near Mille Lacs Lake, the Leech Lake Reservation, and the Red Lake Reservation. Coastal regions of Michigan along Lake Michigan and Lake Superior can also expect similarly intense deficits.
Southeastern Nebraska, in areas within and surrounding Thayer County.
Western regions of the Pacific Northwest, particularly coastal regions of Washington and Oregon.
Southeastern Arizona, in areas southeast of Tucson.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates extreme to exceptional deficits to occur throughout Iowa, north-central Minnesota, eastern Wisconsin, and coastal regions of Michigan along Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. Deficits in southeastern Louisiana and southern Alabama are expected to linger, but decrease in severity, becoming mostly moderate to severe deficits. Much of Virginia, northwestern South Carolina, and midwestern states can anticipate widespread moderate deficits. Western states, primarily southwestern California, Nevada, Wyoming, southern Idaho, Montana, and Utah, should expect intense surpluses to continue, but will mostly downgrade in intensity to extreme to severe anomalies. Deficits in western coastal regions of the Pacific Northwest will dissipate, but severe to extreme surplus in eastern Oregon will persist. In the non-continental U.S., northwestern Alaska will continue to experience widespread surpluses, mainly of severe to extreme intensity throughout the Seward Peninsula and into southern regions of the North Slope Borough, the Northwest Arctic Borough, and north-central areas of the Yukon-Koyukuk Borough.

From January through March 2024, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to continue in central Wyoming, southern Montana, central Nevada, and northeastern Utah. Deficits are expected to persist in west-central Colorado, northern to central Minnesota, and eastern Iowa, but are expected to lessen in intensity into mostly moderate to severe anomalies. Northeastern Wisconsin can expect exceptional deficits to linger, but slightly decrease in magnitude. Outside of the Continental U.S., much of Alaska’s Seward Peninsula is expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus, which continues further inland into southern areas of the North Slope Borough, the Northwest Arctic Borough, and north-central portions of the Yukon-Koyukuk Borough.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates surpluses in Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, and Montana to further decrease in intensity, becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Deficits in Iowa will persist but similarly decrease in intensity, becoming moderate deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in New York City near the beginning of October. Over 150 schools were flooded, as well as city streets, trapping commuters in their cars. In Queens, nearly 8 inches of rainfall were recorded, 6 inches in Midtown Manhattan, and nearly 7 inches in Brooklyn, all in just 24 hours. The flooding also affected the city’s transit system, which disrupted travel for roughly 4 million riders. Scientists attributed the sudden amount of rainfall to climate change and global warming, since air at a higher temperature retains more moisture.

More than 80% of Texas is experiencing a lingering drought which is causing wildfires, damaging agricultural regions, and creating water shortages which affect over 24.1 million Texans. This year’s drought comes less than a year after one of Texas’ worst droughts on record in 2022. “Last year we were lucky enough to start getting widespread rain during the last three weeks of August,” stated Texas State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. “This time around, August didn’t bail us out and September’s been a bit better but certainly not enough to cause widespread improvements.” According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nearly 40% of the state is in an extreme or exceptional drought, the most severe levels.

Data from the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, recently showed that Charlotte, North Carolina has gone without measurable rainfall for more than two weeks. Agriculture In both North and South Carolina have been noticeably affected, as some crops such as barley, corn, cotton, peanuts, soybeans, sunflowers, and winter wheat, have seen lowered production output. two main factors have been identified for the worsening drought conditions over the past 30 days – precipitation deficits between 3 to 5 inches in the southern Appalachian mountains, and lower than average streamflows.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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