South Asia: Pockets of surplus continue in central, W India

South Asia: Pockets of surplus continue in central, W India

25 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates mostly normal conditions throughout South Asia, with pockets of moderate to severe surplus appearing in western and central India, as well as extreme deficits in east-central India and western Pakistan.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of June 2024.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • South-central India, in western regions of Andhra Pradesh, eastern Karnataka, and southern Telangana.

  • Northern regions of India, within the state of Punjab, as well as western coastal regions of the state of Gujarat. 

  • Nepal, along the country’s northern border.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas: 

  • East-central India, with severe to exceptional deficits in western areas of the state of Jharkhand. 

  • Western Pakistan, in northwestern regions of the Balochistan province. 

  • Southwestern Afghanistan, in areas west of the Chahar Burjak.

  • Southern Bangladesh, in western regions of the Chandpur District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates exceptional deficits to arise in western Rajasthan in regions along the shared border of Pakistan. Similarly intense deficits are expected to appear in the Taftan region of western Pakistan. In central India, pockets of severe to extreme surplus are expected to occur in western and eastern regions of Madhya Pradesh. Isolated instances of severe surpluses are expected to appear in western coastal regions of the Indian state of Guajarat, as well as in the Herat, Helmand, and Uruzgan provinces of Afghanistan. 

From January through March 2024, intense deficits are expected to appear in coastal regions of Goa, Karnataka, and regions near the city of Mysuru. Isolated pockets of severe to extreme surplus are expected to persist further north in western and eastern regions of Madhya Pradesh, with some instances of moderate to severe transitional conditions. Similarly intense surpluses are expected to continue and expand throughout the majority of Afghanistan, though central regions of the country in the Yakawlang District are expected to experience normal conditions. Some moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in northernmost regions of India, particularly in Himachal Pradesh. 

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits to arise in western India, in coastal regions of the state of Gujarat, which continue north into southeastern regions of Pakistan. Northern Pakistan is expected to observe mostly moderate surpluses, which spread into northern India and northeastern Afghanistan. Most other regions can expect near-normal conditions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
74 deaths were reported in India’s Himalayas region on October 9th due to flash flooding, with 101 still missing days after the incident. The flooding occurred due to a glacial lake bursting its banks, which previously followed days of torrential rainfall in the Indian state of Sikkim. A dam near the town of Rangpo was damaged, as well as in nearby villages about 30 miles south of state capital Gangtok. Rescuers recovered 25 victims, as well as eight army personnel in the state of West Bengal. 

Officials in India have created a controversial plan to link several rivers and divert water for irrigation, which could result in reduced rainfall in water-stressed areas. The water transfer could potentially affect nearby climate systems and reduce September rainfall by as much as 12% in some Indian states. Some scientists have raised concern that not enough is known about the environmental effects of the river engineering project for it to be completed. Eco-hydrologist Jagdish Krishnaswamy says that the plan is “probably the largest manipulation of India’s hydrology to ever be conceived,” as it would create a network of 15,000 kilometers of canals and thousands of reservoirs to transport 174 billion cubic meters of water annually to regions suffering from water shortages. 

In Pakistan, Engro Polymer & Chemicals led a collaborative project with Indus Valley School to boost flood resilience in the country. Students at Indus Valley School created a design for shelter using materials from the region, including locally sourced bamboo, sun-dried brick, concrete blocks, and UPVC sheets. “Our goal is to develop the local construction industry by promoting the use of modern PVC materials that are not only environmentally friendly but also designed to withstand the toughest conditions, including flash floods. Muhammad Idrees, Chief Commercial Officer of Engro Polymer & Chemicals, stated that they are “proud to be at the forefront of the sustainable construction movement in Pakistan.” The project follows over a year after the country’s worst flooding season in recorded history, which killed over 1,700 people in 2022. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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