Middle East: Exceptional deficits expand in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen

Middle East: Exceptional deficits expand in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen

30 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to increase in magnitude throughout southern Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Exceptional deficits in eastern Iran are expected to persist, but significantly decrease in extent.

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficit and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southern Saudi Arabia, throughout the majority of central to southern areas of the Riyadh Province, Al Ahsa, Al Udeid, and the Aseer Province. These deficits continue into western and central regions of the United Arab Emirates. 

  • Northeastern Saudi Arabia, within the Tabuk Principality.

  • Yemen, covering the majority of the country, and in northern Oman, in central regions of the Ad Dakhiliyah Governorate.

  • Eastern Iran, in eastern regions of the South Khorasan Province.

  • Northeastern coastal regions of Turkey along the Black Sea. 

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Iraq, in the Al-Salman District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits throughout southern Saudi Arabia, particularly in the Riyadh Province, as well as throughout Yemen and Oman. Further north, much of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq can expect moderate to severe surplus, which continues east into southwestern regions of Iran. Eastern regions of Iran’s South Khorasan Province can expect isolated exceptional deficits, while northern coastal regions along the Caspian Sea can anticipate extreme to exceptional deficits. 

From January through March 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to persist throughout Yemen and in central Oman. Western and northeastern regions of Iran can expect isolated pockets of moderate to severe surplus, as well as eastern regions of Turkey near Van Lake. The majority of other Middle Eastern countries can anticipate near-normal conditions. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur along the Nile River. 

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – indicates that some exceptional deficits will arise in south-central Saudi Arabia, as well as throughout eastern to southern Oman and isolated areas of Yemen. Severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in southeastern Iraq and southwestern coastal regions of Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Iraqi Minister of Water Resources, Aoun Dhiab, announced plans to construct 36 dams in 2024 to combat drought threatening the dwindling water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. These dams will be built to distribute collected rainwater throughout several regions of the country. Aoun explained that after 4 years of drought, Iraq is expected to observe early rainfall during the upcoming fall and winter, which will help replenish water reserves for the country for drinking and agriculture.

Severe drought is threatening agricultural lands in Yemen, most prominently in the Lahj Governorate in the southern region of the country. Nearly 70% percent of Yemen’s population depends on agriculture grown in the Lahj Governorate. In addition to lack of sufficient rainfall, groundwater resources are also beginning to deplete, which farmers use to sustain their non-seasonal agriculture. 

The Qatar Red Crescent launched a project to distribute drinking water in camps throughout the Jubaland region of Somalia. The project will provide 18 tankers daily for 30 days to assist 7,000 Somalians and will cost approximately 305,500 Qatari riyals. The project is part of a larger emergency response plan funded by the Qatar Red Crescent Disaster Response Fund which will assist displaced people in drought-stricken areas in the city of Kismayo.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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