Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue in SW, N, SE Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue in SW, N, SE Russia

31 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 expects intense deficits to persist in southwestern regions of Russia, as well as northern and southeastern regions. Surplus is also anticipated in northern Russia, in regions near the Putorana State Natural Reserve, as well as in southern Russia, near Lake Baikal. 

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficits and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern Russia, widespread throughout northern coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Southwest Russia, in the region of Komi, as well as in regions near the city of Omsk. 

  • Southeastern Russia, with pockets of intense deficits throughout northern and central regions of Zabaykalsky Krai. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northern Russia, in areas near the Putorana State Natural Reserve. 

  • Northeastern Russia, in northern regions of the Sakha Republic, within the Olenyoksky District.

  • Southern Russia, in areas north of Lake Baikal, as well as near the city of Rubtsovsk, which continues into Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan Region.

Transitional conditions are expected in: 

·       Northeastern Russia, in areas within the Mirninskiy Ulus District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits in southwest Russia, particularly in the region of Komi and near the city of Omsk to persist, as well as in coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Nearby, exceptional transitional conditions are expected to appear in the Nadymsky District. Exceptional surplus in northern Russia is also expected to persist near the Putorana State Natural Reserve. Southernmost regions of the Sakha Republic, north of Lake Baikal, can anticipate severe to exceptional surplus to continue, as well as widespread exceptional deficits in Aldanskiy Ulus. Mostly normal conditions are expected in Kazakhstan, with the exception of eastern regions forecast to observe extreme to exceptional surplus which occurs in the Katonkaragay District and continues far southwest into regions near the city of Almaty. 

From January through March 2024, intense deficits are expected to continue in southwestern Russia, near the region of Komi and the city of Omsk. Exceptional deficits are expected to mostly cease in northern coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, though will still continue in regions near the settlement of Novy Port. Surplus in northern Russia near the Putorana State Natural Reserve is expected to continue, as are similarly intense surpluses north of Lake Baikal. Further east, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in regions near Aldanskiy Ulus. Intense surplus in eastern Kazakhstan is expected to continue, still spreading further southwest into regions near the city of Almaty. Southeastern regions of Uzbekistan should anticipate moderate surplus to emerge.

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates most regions to experience near normal conditions, with some extreme to exceptional deficits persisting in coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, areas near the Beloyarsky District of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, and in eastern areas of the Mamsko-Chuysky District in the Irkutsk Oblast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Kazakhstan is expected to announce a regional drought emergency as the country’s crop yields, specifically sugar beets, are dwindling. This year, farmers faced shortages of water fit for irrigation, which affected crop health. Minister of Agriculture Erbol Karashukeev stated  that “Agricultural producers faced a number of problems associated with drought and lack of irrigation water, which affected the condition of crops.” 

As rivers in the Scerdlovsk region were recently observed at their lowest water levels in recorded history, hydrologists warn of a growing shortage of water resources in the area.  The Ural Department of Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring stated that “There remained a shortage of water resources in the Sverdlovsk region. Over the past week, in Lobva and the middle reaches of the Sosva, water levels have dropped below the lowest levels from the September sample in the entire history of observations.

”A new study found that Central Asia is particularly sensitive to global climate change, as well as drought due to evapotranspiration. A research team from the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences studied precipitation, soil moisture, terrestrial water storage and total lake area in Central Asia, which showed decreasing trends during the study period and a significant increase in agricultural and hydrological drought. A slight increase in meteorological drought was also observed. Compared to precipitation and runoff, actual evapotranspiration played a major role in agricultural and hydrological drought in Central Asia, with contributions of 64.38 and 51.04 percent, respectively.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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