East Asia: Widespread exceptional deficits in N China

East Asia: Widespread exceptional deficits in N China

31 October 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in June 2024 anticipates most exceptional deficits in southern China to dissipate, becoming mostly near-normal conditions. Southwestern China is expected to experience continued surplus, while northern China is expected to observe widespread exceptional deficits. 

The map on top depicts long-term deficit and surplus anomalies as of September 2023, while the map on the bottom depicts a forecast of long-term deficits and surpluses as of June 2024.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northern China, throughout central to western Inner Mongolia, northern Ganzu, and eastern regions of Xinjiang. 

  • Southwestern China, in isolated areas of Yunnan.

  • Japan, in the central to northern areas of the island of Honshu.  Similarly intense deficits are anticipated in eastern coastal regions of the island of Sapporo, near the town of Hamanaka.

  • Northeastern North Korea, in the Ryanggang province. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southeastern China, throughout most of Tibet. 

  • South Korea, with surpluses present throughout the majority of the country. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through December 2023 anticipates that exceptional deficits will be widespread throughout Inner Mongolia, but lessen in western portions of the region. Deficits of lesser intensity, ranging from moderate to severe, will continue east into Liaoning and Jilin. Further west, central regions of Xinjiang are expected to endure continued exceptional deficits. In southwestern China, Tibet is expected to observe continued surplus of severe to extreme intensity, as well as eastern regions of Sichuan and Hubei. 

From January through March 2024, deficits in northern China are expected to mostly dissipate, though will still continue in eastern regions of Inner Mongolia and eastern Xinjiang. Nearby, northeastern North Korea is expected to observe continued severe deficits in the Ryanggang province. Tibet is expected to experience pockets of severe to exceptional surplus. Further east, central regions of Sichuan can expect a mixture of severe to exceptional surplus and moderate to severe transitional conditions. Severe to exceptional surpluses continue east into southern Hubai and northern Hunan. 

The forecast for the final months – April 2024 through June 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions for most areas, though moderate to severe surplus is expected to continue in Tibet, as is exceptional deficits in isolated areas of eastern and central Xinjiang. In Japan, moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in central and northern regions of the island of Honshu.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Yangtze River Basin is currently experiencing its lowest water levels since 1865. Low rainfall in the area sped up evaporation, with August water levels left at 60% below average levels. The drought earlier this year was severe enough to cause hydropower shortages and halt shipping along the basin, of which annually sees nearly 3 billion tonnes of cargo. 

The Jiangxi Provincial Disaster Reduction Committee Office recently issued a report regarding risk analysis of natural disasters in October 2023. The report predicted expectations that Jiangzi will observe lower than normal precipitation levels this year, higher temperatures, as well as medium-risk meteorological drought in some areas. According to the report, the average precipitation in the province is expected to be 50 to 55 mm, which is slightly less than the same period in normal years. The average temperature in the province is expected to be slightly higher by 0.5 degrees Celsius. 

The Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kazakhstan's Sefulin University of Agricultural Technology, and other institutions are reportedly cooperating to promote sustainable and eco-friendly development in Central Asia. Central Asia ranks first as having the highest concentration of arid areas, accounting for 34% globally. Institutions involved in the project have compiled the "Technical Regulations for the Construction of Ecological Barriers in the Capital Circle of Kazakhstan," as well as built a 23-hectare experimental demonstration base, with a promotion and application area of one thousand hectares.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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