Canada: Exceptional deficits continue in most provinces

24 November 2023
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to remain throughout most of the country, with some intense surplus emerging in the northern islands of Nunavut.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

Central and northeastern British Columbia, appearing in regions west of Williston Lake, as well as throughout the Canadian Northern Rockies area.
Northern and southeastern Alberta, in regions near the Wood Buffalo National Park of Canada, as well as regions east of Calgary.
Saskatchewan, widespread throughout most of the province's northern and central regions, continuing east into western Manitoba, northwest of Lake Winnipeg.
Southern to northeastern Ontario, beginning in regions bordering Lake Superior and into coastal regions along the Hudson Bay. These deficits travel along the coast into western and northern Quebec, as well as into northern Newfoundland.
Northern Yukon, in areas near Ivvavik National Park, continuing east throughout Northwestern Territories and into the Kivalliq and Kitikmeot regions of Nunavut.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected to occur in:

The Qikiqtaaluk Region of Nunavut, covering much of Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in most provinces to persist, appearing in central to northeastern British Columbia, northern and southeastern Alberta, the majority of Saskatchewan, central Manitoba, and across Ontario into coastal regions of Quebec. Northern Yukon and southern and northwestern regions of Northwestern Territory will observe continued exceptional deficits, as well as western and southern regions of Nunavut. Further north, southeastern regions of the Qikiqtaaluk Region and Baffin Island can expect continued extreme to exceptional surplus.

From February through April 2024, deficits will continue to be widespread throughout most provinces, but will slightly decrease in size. Regions that continue to be affected include central and northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, much of Saskatchewan, western Manitoba, and along Ontario and Quebec’s coasts along the Hudson Bay. Deficits are also expected to continue in southern Ontario and northern Newfoundland. Further north, deficits in northern Yukon and Northwest Territories are expected to persist, as well as in western and southern Nunavut. In Baffin Island, extreme to exceptional surpluses will continue across most of the area, as well as southwestern regions of the Qikiqtaaluk Region. The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates widespread deficits to continue throughout northeastern British Columbia, as well as north-central Saskatchewan. Deficits will continue in central Manitoba, northwest of Lake Winnipeg, but will subside in Quebec and Newfoundland.

IMPACTS
As of November 20th, there are still 330 wildfires burning across Canada’s forests, with 85 of them still uncontrolled according to the Canadian Forest Fire Centre. 2023 has been a record year for wildfires across Canada, with 6,647 fires burning over 18.5 million hectares of the land – the equivalent size of North Dakota. The wildfires have been thought to be a result of a lack of snowfall and drought across the country during the last winter. These dry conditions are predicted to repeat in the winter of 2023 and 2024, according to representatives of AccuWeather, particularly in central and eastern Canada.

The head of the British Columbia Christmas Tree Association reported that over 5,000 seedlings were lost due to drought this summer, and that nearly 250 B.C. growers have left the business over the last ten years. The loss of seedlings is not expected to impact the availability of trees this year, but remains concerning, says local Larry Whitehead. “A lot of seedlings died, including my own,” he said. “More growers have turned to irrigation. I wouldn’t recommend starting a new field without it.”

Drought throughout the Lake Winnipeg watershed recently forced Manitoba Hydro to activate an emergency station long before its typical seasonal use. The station, a natural gas powered plant named the Brandon station, typically only operates as a last resort during peak periods of cold weather, but has been running since late October. The station usually operates when Manitoba Hydro needs to supplement peak loads, or when it is less costly to use natural gas rather than to import electricity from the United States. The Brandon plant is the last large-scale fossil fuel-driven generating station that Manitoba Hydro operates.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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