Africa: Deficits to continue across N Africa

Africa: Deficits to continue across N Africa

24 November 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in July 2024 anticipates widespread deficits in northern regions of the continent, with similarly intense deficits occurring in Botswana. Eastern countries and southern regions of the Horn of Africa are expected to observe intense surplus.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • The majority of Mauritania, northern to central Mali, Algeria, southern Libya, and most of Niger.

  • Most northern and southeastern regions of Chad, which continue into northwestern to eastern Sudan and along the northern border of Ethiopia.

  • Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), in areas near the city of Kabongo.

  • Angola, throughout the Cunene Province, continuing into northwestern Namibia, and throughout Botswana.

  • Southwestern Madagascar, throughout areas nearby the region of Soahazo.

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to occur in:

  • Tanzania, throughout the country.

  • Somalia, near the city of Baidoa in the country’s South West State.

  • Southwest Ethiopia, west of the city in Arba Minch.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through January 2024 anticipates most deficits in northern African countries to dissipate, but still linger in southern Mali, northern Benin, and northwestern to central Nigeria. Similar deficits will continue in southeastern Chad, northern Central African Republic, and northern Ethiopia. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected to arise in many areas of western and eastern Africa, including coastal regions of Liberia and Ivory Coast, along the coast into southern Cameroon, northern DRC, Uganda, southern Kenya, southern Somalia, and Tanzania.

From February through April 2024, deficits in central African countries are expected to dissipate further, mainly affecting central Niger and the Central African Republic. Surpluses are expected to continue throughout Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and southern Somalia.

The forecast for the final months – May 2024 through July 2024 – anticipates deficits to re-emerge in southern Libya, central Algeria, northeastern Sudan, and northeastern Niger. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in South Sudan, while similarly intense surpluses will continue in Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Somalia was recently hit by the worst flooding the country has seen in forty years. According to the National Disaster Management Agency, as of November 8th, the floods killed 29 people and displaced over 300,000. Somali authorities declared an emergency after heavy rainfall triggered flooding across the county, which followed several years of drought and successive seasons of insufficient rainfall. Studies state that the drought was worsened by the human-induced climate crisis. 

Experts anticipate that areas in the southern hemisphere will endure record setting temperatures, as well as intense rainfall surpluses as summer begins. Andrew King, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne, Australia, stated that there is a “high chance of seeing record-high temperatures, at least on a global average, and seeing some particularly extreme events in some parts of the world.” While the summer season of 2023 saw unprecedented high temperatures in North Africa, much of southern Africa is expected to observe warm and dry conditions in the summer. Additionally, in eastern Africa, the combination of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to exacerbate heavy rainfall. 

African representatives that recently attended a meeting of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) in Uzbekistan expressed concern that attention has been shifted away from climate change and desertification in Africa. They also stated that funds for relevant projects are being diverted elsewhere. Nigerian delegate Habiba Ibrahim expressed to world leaders that environmental issues and desertification have been neglected. "They are not paying enough attention," she stated, "because when you have issues of conflicts going on around the world, your mind tends to go there."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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