South Asia: Surplus intensifies in southernmost regions of India

South Asia: Surplus intensifies in southernmost regions of India

21 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates surpluses to strengthen in southernmost regions of India, with moderate to severe surpluses remaining in western and west-central states of the country. Pockets of deficit throughout eastern India and Bangladesh are expected to diminish, while deficit in southern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan is expected to continue, but decrease in size. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southernmost India, through the states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

  • Central India, in southern regions of the state of Madhya Pradesh and throughout Gujarat. 

  • Sri Lanka, throughout the country, with the highest concentrations appearing in southern coastal regions. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southwest Pakistan, in northwestern regions of the Chagai District. 

  • Southwest Afghanistan, in southern regions of the Chahar Burjak District.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates severe to exceptional surplus to occur in west-central regions of Madhya Pradesh and in Karnataka. Similarly intense surpluses are expected in northern Bangladesh and in western to central Sri Lanka. Northern Pakistan can expect moderate to severe deficits to occur near the city of Islamabad. The rest of the region can expect mostly near-normal to moderate conditions. 

From March through May 2024, severe to extreme surpluses are expected to linger in west-central regions of Madhya Pradesh, as well as Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Some exceptional deficits will occur in western coastal regions of Gujarat, Maharashtra, and northernmost regions of Himachal Pradesh. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates most regions to experience continued near-normal conditions, though several regions of India, including the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, will experience an emergence of moderate to severe surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Torrential rainfall has inundated several parts of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu, flooding roads, halting transportation, and prompting authorities to rescue stranded civilians. The floods occurred during the state’s recovery period from the damage caused by Cyclone Michaung. The state recorded nearly 50 mm of rainfall between December 17th and 18th, with more expected to follow. Average rainfall in the region is roughly 2.5 mm. Five deaths have been reported due to the rainfall, which primarily affected the districts of Tuticorin, Tirunelveli, Tenkasi, and Kanyakumari.

Cyclone Michaung also brought intense rainfall and flooding to the city of Chennai on December 4th. Streets in the city were inundated as the storm made landfall on India’s coastline, which affected nearly 12 million people. Parts of Chennai and neighboring districts received nearly an inch of rain overnight. Airports in the area were halted, canceling 70 flights and diverting over 30 to the nearby Kempegowda airport in the city of Bengaluru.

In Sri Lanka, the country's Disaster Management Center (DMC) reported that over 7,000 residents have been affected by inclement rainy weather the week of December 10th. The Director General of the DMC, Sudantha Ranasinghe, stated that low-lying areas around rivers faced the threat of flooding as water levels, and that evacuations would be prompted if necessary. Additionally, Sri Lanka's Department of Meteorology stated over 100 millimeters of rainfall were expected to follow in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Southern, North-Western and Eastern provinces.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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