United States: Intense deficits persist in SE states

21 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 indicates that intense surplus in western states will mostly subside, as well as most intense deficits in the Upper Midwest. However, deficits are expected to linger in Minnesota, as well as in southern states such as Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas:

Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, with moderate to severe deficits occurring throughout most regions of the states. Exceptional anomalies are expected in northeastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi, as well as northwestern Alabama.
Central to northern Minnesota, with exceptional deficits expected to occur in most regions near the Upper and Lower Red Lakes, as well in areas bordering North Dakota’s city of Fargo.
Northeastern Wisconsin, with exceptional deficits in regions near the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest, moving into northern coastal regions of Michigan. Similar deficits are expected in areas within Michigan’s Lower Peninsula.
Pockets of east-central Indiana and areas along the shared border of West Virginia and Virginia.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Nevada, with pockets appearing throughout central regions of the state.
Western to central Connecticut, spanning most regions.
Southeastern Florida, southeast of Lake Okeechobee.
Alaska, throughout the Seward Peninsula.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to expand throughout many southeastern states, including throughout Louisiana, Mississippi, and northern Alabama, into Tennessee, Kentucky, and pockets throughout Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. Similarly intense deficits are expected further west in New Mexico, northern Texas, western and eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. Widespread surplus is expected throughout Wyoming, southern Montana, Nevada, and regions throughout the Seward Peninsula in Alaska.

From March through May 2024, most intense anomalies in central and southern states will dissipate, with exceptional deficits still expected to occur in central to northern Minnesota, northeastern Wisconsin, and northern coastal regions of Michigan. Moderate surplus is expected in northwestern Colorado, northern and southern Florida, and throughout Alaska.

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions throughout most of the country, with deficits persisting in northern Minnesota, but will considerably decrease in intensity. Some exceptional deficits can be expected to linger in northeastern Wisconsin. Moderate surplus is expected to persist along the western coast of California and in Alaska, throughout the Seward Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On December 12th, representatives from Georgia, Alabama, and Florida announced that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which is in charge of controlling the Chattahoochee River’s dams and reservoirs, will consider a proposal with newly set water minimums at Columbus, Georgia, and Columbia, Alabama. Management of shared river basins between these states, including the Chattahoochee River, have been the subject of ongoing legal battles since the 1990s. “This agreement is a win-win for our states, with neither side sacrificing what is important to them,” Georgia Governor Brian Kemp said in the statement. “Just as significant, adoption of this proposal would end the current issues related to water supply for metro Atlanta at Lake Lanier, which is crucial to the future of our State.”

Extreme drought and warmer than average temperatures have left the Mississippi River’s water levels dangerously low, causing problems for local farmers reliant on the river for transportation of goods to market. As nearly 60% of America’s grain exports travel down the river to the Gulf Coast, the Mississippi River is a vital passageway for a wide variety of goods, including soybeans, corn, and wheat. Economic damages caused by the low water levels and consequential impact of supply chains are estimated to be nearly $20 billion.

Zach Leasor, Missouri’s state climatologist, recently reported that the state is currently experiencing a one-in-20-year drought event, and that recovery from future precipitation is not expected to occur in the near future. From April through November, Missouri experienced its seventh driest growing season since 1895, impacting local farmers and livestock, as well as inhibiting travel by rivers. Locals are also beginning to grow concerns about power plants and potable water. “Really, six of the last eight months have featured below-normal precipitation,” Leasor said. “While this has been a drought year, we also had the drought of 2022. When we combine those years, we get some very large precipitation deficits.” According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 99.8% of the state is experiencing varying levels of drought, with 2% experiencing extreme drought.

On December 19th, Californian officials approved new regulations to let water agencies recycle wastewater into potable water for homes, schools, and businesses. This approval is expected to assist the state, as it has struggled for nearly two decades to consistently have a source of clean water for its 39 million plus residents.Over the course of 20 years, California has observed multiple extreme drought, including its most recent drought which was categorized by scientists as the driest three-year period on record. “Water is so precious in California. It is important that we use it more than once,” said Jennifer West, managing director of WateReuse California, which advocates the recycling of water for consumption.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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