Australia & New Zealand: Near-normal conditions continue throughout Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Near-normal conditions continue throughout australia

27 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates most intense anomalies in the region to dissipate, leaving some instances of moderate surplus in western to central Queensland, eastern New South Wales, and eastern Northern Territory. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Central Queensland, in regions near the Einasleigh River. Further southwest, significant portions of the Isaac region can expect similarly intense anomalies. 

  • Eastern Northern Territory, near the Ranken region. 

  • Northeastern New South Wales, appearing near the coastal city of Coffs Harbour. Nearby, similarly intense anomalies continue in southeastern New South Wales into eastern coastal areas of Victoria’s East Gippsland region.

Deficits of varying intensity are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southern Victoria, with moderate deficits throughout most southern coastal regions near the Great Otway National Park. 

  • Tanzania, with moderate deficits covering most western and central regions of the country.

  • Northern New Zealand, with severe deficits along the southwest coast of Taranaki in North Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 expects exceptional deficits in western and eastern regions of the continent to disappear, leaving some moderate to severe surplus anomalies throughout central and southeastern Queensland, as well as southeastern New South Wales and eastern coastal regions of Victoria. Moderate to severe deficits are expected to persist in western and central Tasmania. Some deficits are expected to continue in western coastal regions of Victoria, as well as in coastal regions of the South West region of Western Australia. In New Zealand, most intense anomalies in South Island will dissipate, though some moderate to severe deficits will continue in western portions of North Island, near the Taranaki region. 

From March through May 2024, existing surpluses in central and southeastern Queensland are expected to persist. Similarly intense surpluses throughout eastern New South Wales will grow in size and continue further south into eastern regions of Victoria. Conditions in Tasmania and New Zealand are expected to be mostly normal. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates surpluses across Queensland and New South Wales to continue, with surpluses expanding further inland into east-central New South Wales. Normal conditions in New Zealand and Tasmania are expected to continue.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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