South America: Deficits continue throughout Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

South America: Widespread deficits continue throughout brazil, bolivarian nations

28 December 2023

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in August 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to continue throughout most regions of western and central Brazil, as well as throughout much of the Bolivarian Nations.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in:

  • Western and central Brazil, throughout the majority of the state of Amazonas, and into regions of Rondonia, Para, and Mato Grosso.

  • Eastern Peru, in regions near the Mashco Piro and Made De Dios Reserves.

  • Bolivia, throughout the Beni Department and in regions northeast of the Silvestre Amazónica Manuripi National Reserve.

  • Northern Chile, throughout the Antofagasta Region.

  • West-central Venezuela, in areas near the Aguaro-Guariquito National Park.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southeastern Brazil, throughout the state of Rio Grande do Sul.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through February 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits in northern countries to lessen considerably in size, though are still expected to remain in northeastern Colombia, western Venezuela, and throughout much of west-central and southern Brazil. Nearby, the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul is expected to observe extreme to exceptional surplus.

From March through May 2024, widespread deficits are expected to vanish throughout much of the region. Some exceptional anomalies will persist, specifically in northwestern Argentina, while northern Chile, southwestern Bolivia, and southern Peru will observe moderate to severe deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – June 2024 through August 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions to continue throughout the continent, with some severe to exceptional deficits continuing in northwestern Argentina and southwestern Peru. Some moderate surplus is anticipated to persist in the northernmost regions of Colombia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Authorities announced that drought restrictions will be eased in the Panama Canal, increasing the number of ships it accepts daily starting in January. The Panama Canal has been strained by drought for months, stifling transportation of goods on a global scale. 24 vessels will be permitted to pass through the system daily, up from the current 22 vessel limit. Restrictions were set in place by intense conditions brought on by El Nino, draining much of the canal’s water levels. In October, rainfall in the area dropped to a record low, prompting authorities to impose an unprecedented restriction of traffic in the system.

In Brazil, the Amazon rainforest endured its worst drought on record this year. Hundreds of thousands of people rely on the Amazon’s rivers and streams for food, transportation, and income, but historically low water levels have drastically shifted nearby communities’ ways of life. Important bodies of water, including the Canaticu River and Rio Negro tributary, have nearly or completely dried up. “Now we cannot use it for anything. It wasn’t like this before,” said Elizete Lima Nascimento, who has lived in nearby Serafina for the past decade.

Brazil's drought is causing farmers to delay purchasing fertilizer, consequently delaying the upcoming corn-planting season, as well as crop yields of soybeans. U.S.-based fertilizer producer Mosaic expects safrinha production to drop by 12%, or 12.7 million metric tons, exceeding the Brazil government's expectation of an 11.1 million ton drop from last year. "I would call it a very plausible downside scenario because of how late the crop's going to go in, how dry it currently is and how it's likely that rains will shut down before that safrinha corn matures," said Andy Jung, Mosaic vice-president of market and strategic analysis.

A combination of drought and nightly hailstorms have destroyed many families’ crops in the Peruvian Andes, increasing food scarcity throughout the region. Farmers in the Junin department, one of the most drought-vulnerable areas of Peru, reported that they are struggling to feed their own families, with some accounts of entire potato fields being wiped out due to these conditions. As Junín faces an unusually dry rainy season, the National Center for Estimation, Prevention and Reduction of Disaster Risk anticipates a 30% fall in agricultural production during the coming months in the Huancayo province.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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