ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List January 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST January 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in October 2023 and running through September 2024 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List January 15, 2023 (pdf).

United States:  Intense deficits are expected to continue in some southeastern states until March 2024.

Canada: Most provinces are expected to observe persisting exceptional deficits until June 2024 or longer.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean:  Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to persist in areas of Mexico until March 2024.

South America:  Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in most areas of Brazil until March 2024.

Europe:  The majority of Europe is expected to experience widespread surplus until March 2024 or longer.

Africa: Intense deficits in northern countries are expected to resolve, while surplus in central regions are expected to persist until September 2024 or longer.

Middle East:  Deficits throughout Saudi Arabia are expected to dissipate by March 2024, but are expected to remerge by June 2024.

Central Asia and Russia: Western and eastern regions of Russia are expected to observe exceptional deficits, as well as surplus in southern regions, until March 2024.  

South Asia: Near-normal conditions are expected in most regions, with some southern regions of India experiencing isolated pockets of surplus until March 2024.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific:  Intense surplus is expected throughout Maritime Southeast Asia until March 2024 or longer.

East Asia:  Some regions of northern China are expected to experience prolonged exceptional deficits until March 2024. Southwestern areas of China can expect widespread surplus throughout June 2024.  

Australia & New Zealand:  Eastern regions of Australia are expected to observe moderate to severe surplus throughout September 2024 or longer.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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