Australia & New Zealand: Surpluses emerge in E Australia

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates that the most intense anomalies to resolve throughout most of Australia and New Zealand, though moderate to severe surpluses are expected to occur in eastern provinces of Australia.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Central and southeast Queensland, throughout the shire of Etheridge, the Tablelands region, and the Longreach Region.
Northeast New South Wales, in northeastern areas of the New England region.
Southern and eastern Victoria, in regions south of the Alpine National Park, as well as eastern coastal regions near the Bemm River.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Northern Western Australia, in northern coastal regions of the Kimberley region.
Western Tanzania, covering most of the region.
Southern New Zealand, in the southernmost regions of South Island, near the town of Winton.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates moderate to severe surpluses to emerge in central Queensland, northeastern to eastern New South Wales, and southeastern coastal regions of Victoria. Outside of Australia, northwestern portions of Tanzania and southernmost regions of New Zealand’s South Island can anticipate moderate to severe deficits.

From April through June 2024, near normal conditions are expected to continue throughout the entirety of New Zealand and most of Australia. Surplus anomalies are expected to continue in south-central Queensland, northeastern New South Wales, and southern to southeastern coastal regions of Australia.

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – indicates that moderate to severe surpluses are expected to expand in southwestern Australia, particularly in Victoria and New South Wales. Similar surpluses in Queensland are expected to shrink but remain. In northern Western Australia and Northern Territory, pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to emerge across the territories’ northern coasts.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Eastern regions of Australia were hit with flash flooding on January 2nd, deluging roads and damaging local communities. Several regions in southeastern Queensland and northern New South Wales recorded the equivalent of two months’ worth of rainfall over the last three days, with 20 inches of rain being recorded over two days in Queensland’s Springbrook – over double the January average.

On January 24th, residents began preparing their homes and communities to withstand conditions from Tropical Cyclone Kirrily, which made landfall on the night of the 25th, bringing intense wind and rain. Once the storm crossed into northern Queensland, it downgraded from a category three storm to category two, as winds fell from 143 km/h to 90 km/h and rain. Intense rainfall and destructive wind still remains forecast for the coming days, as structural damage and fallen trees have been reported, but no injuries.

Deadly red fire ants have reportedly begun forming rafts to travel across the inundated regions of Queensland, with locals worrying about a countrywide spread of the invasive species. “The recent heavy rainfall and wild weather in the region could accelerate the spread of fire ants, one of the world’s worst invasive species,” Reece Pianta, advocacy manager at Australia’s Invasive Species Council. “Fire ants are more active before or after rainfall and can form large floating rafts which move with water currents to establish footholds in new areas,” Pianta said, urging residents to be on the lookout.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.<p><p>

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