East Asia: Deficits persist in N and NW China

East Asia: Deficits persist in N and NW China

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates widespread deficits to subside in southern regions of China, but remain in northern to northwestern regions.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Northwestern China, throughout northern Qinghai, northern Gansu, and southeastern Xinjiang. Similarly intense deficits can be found further east in central areas of the Beijing region. 

  • Northern China, in western Inner Mongolia, in regions near the Alxa Left Banner. 

  • North Korea, throughout the country’s northeastern regions. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southeastern China, in the east-central regions of Tibet, near the city of Nagqu.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will notably decrease in size and severity in northern areas of China, though will continue in central areas of Inner Mongolia, southern Xinjiang, and portions of the Jilin region. Northernmost regions of North Korea can anticipate exceptional deficits to continue, as well as some transitional conditions further northwest in Heilongjiang. Surplus is expected to persist in southeastern China, throughout Tibet, as well as in central regions of North Korea. 

From April through June 2024, surpluses of varying intensity are expected to spread further throughout Tibet, as well as further east in the provinces of Fujian and Guangdong. Deficits are expected to persist in northern areas of Shaanxi and near the city of Beijing. The majority of the rest of the country can anticipate near-normal conditions. 

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – anticipates near-normal conditions throughout much of China, though some deficits are expected to arise in northwestern and westernmost China.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On January 22nd, a landslide was reported in Zhenxiong County, Yunnan following a snow storm, causing 47 people to go missing. The landslide took place at 5:51 GMT, prompting 200 people to evacuate and destroying 18 households. Authorities launched an emergency response following the incident involving over 200 rescue workers. China has recently reported several occurrences of similar disasters following heavy rainfall, including landslides that were triggered after intense rainfall which occurred during the months of June to September, in the Guangi, Sichuan, and Xi’an provinces. 

Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters recently published a paper titled “Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in Eastern 2022 drought-like China in 2022 and its future risk,” which analyzes 2022’s extreme drought events in eastern China. Major economic and agricultural damage affected regions of eastern China.The study found that the occurrence of intense droughts increased by 56% due to anthropogenic warming. "We further analyzed the responses of 2022 drought-like events to different warming scenarios and found that, under a low-emissions scenario, the risk of such an event occurring declines dramatically," explained Professor Chen, co-author of the study.

South Korea recently reported that the country experienced an average of 31.4 meteorological drought days in 2023, ranking 27th driest year since records began in 1974. Southern regions of the country recorded an average of 36.6 meteorological drought days, while central areas reported 26 days. Southern areas reported significantly low precipitation levels in the winter of 2021, resulting in a meteorological drought in spring 2022 and continuing into the spring of 2023. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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