South Asia: Surplus expands in S India, Sri Lanka

South Asia: Surplus expands in S India, Sri Lanka

29 January 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in September 2024 anticipates moderate surplus to spread across much of India, with exceptional surplus expected to expand in size in southernmost regions. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist in regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in: 

  • Southern Afghanistan, widespread throughout the provinces of Nimruz, Farah, and Helmand. 

  • Western regions of Pakistan, widespread throughout the Balochistan province. 

  • Northernmost areas of India, in the central to easternmost region of the state of Uttarakhand. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southernmost regions of India, throughout most regions of the state of Tamil Nadu.

  • Sri Lanka, widespread throughout the country, with the highest concentrations appearing in southwestern regions near the coastal city of Galle.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through March 2024 anticipates exceptional surplus to continue in southern regions of India within the state of Tamil Nadu, as well as in eastern coastal regions of Andhra Pradesh. Further north, south-central regions of Madhya Pradesh can anticipate severe to extreme surplus. Areas near the region of Ladakh, in northernmost regions of Pakistan, are expected to observe moderate to severe deficits along Pakistan’s northern border, as well as in northwestern Afghanistan in the Badghis Province.

From April through June 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to emerge throughout southern Pakistan, continuing east into northwestern regions of India, throughout the state of Rajasthan. Isolated deficits of similar intensity are expected to emerge in western coastal regions of Maharashtra, near the city of Mumbai. Coastal regions of southern and eastern India, particularly southern Tamil Nadu and eastern Andhra Pradesh, can anticipate severe to extreme surplus to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – July 2024 through September 2024 – indicates a large area of moderate to severe surpluses in western, north-central, and southern regions of India. Southernmost coastal regions of India can anticipate extreme surpluses.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, or OCHA, recently warned of impending drought and warmer temperatures in Afghanistan this winter. “Without substantial snowfall soon, the country could experience a severe drought,” the agency said on January 23. Additionally, the OCHA stated that water scarcity could devastate crop yields and halt recovery for pastures. Farmers in the area have already started to notice negative impacts of the drought. “People are facing hunger and poverty. There is no work, and most have not cultivated their lands,” stated Farhad Gul, a farmer in Ghazni. “Our cattle are hungry because there is no grass.”

As climate change accelerates the melting of mountain ice in Nepal, two villages located below glacial lakes are in danger of experiencing catastrophic floods. The two villages, Langtang and Kyanjin, are located in Kyanjin Valley, and have been using the nearby glacial lakes to generate hydropower since 2017, powering 175 households. Before 2017, locals were forced to use arduous methods to power their homes. "We used to go three hours away from here to collect firewood," said 48-year-old Pasang Tamang, a hotel manager in Kyanjin.

Flooding in southern Sri Lanka has increased the risk of crocodile attacks in affected areas. Recently, regions of the Matara district near the Nilwala River have reported more frequent sightings of crocodiles near human settlements after a period of intense rainfall. During flooding, crocodiles inhabiting the river typically move closer to populated land, escalating threats to human safety. No crocodile attacks have yet been reported in the area, but authorities have had to clear stray crocodiles away from nearby riverbanks. As Sri Lanka is one the countries most vulnerable to climate change, future increases in flood events could further endanger locals. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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