South America: Deficit continue throughout Brazil, Bolivarian Nations

South America: dEFICITS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT bRAZIL, bOLIVARIAN nATIONS

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits will continue throughout most of Brazil, as well as some regions of the Bolivarian Nations. Similarly intense deficits are expected to continue in Chile and the Guianas. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Brazil, widespread throughout the country, throughout the states of Amazonas, Rondonia, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul, continuing east into western Minas Gerais and south into Sao Paulo. 

  • Bolivia, throughout the majority of northern to northeastern regions of the country, continuing ino northern Paraguay. Some southern to eastern regions of Paraguay will also experience exceptional deficits. 

  • Eastern Peru, appearing near the Madre de Dios Territorial Reserve and continuing along the country’s eastern border into the northern Amazon.

  • Colombia, appearing in pockets in west-central regions, continuing into southern and western Venezuela.

  • The majority of northern coastal regions of the Guianas. 

  • Northern Chile, throughout the Antofagasta Province and into northwestern regions of Argentina. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southern Brazil, in the central regions of Rio Grande do Sul.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits throughout northern Brazil will diminish, but will remain in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias. Most of northeastern Bolivia is expected to observe similar conditions. Exceptional deficits are expected to mostly diminish in northern Chile, but remain in isolated pockets near the town of San Pedro de Atacama and the Andes Mountains. Western regions of Argentina’s Jujuy province are also expected to endure exceptional deficits. Further north, north-central regions of Amazonas can anticipate severe to extreme deficits, as well as southernmost regions of Venezuela, and northern coastal regions of the Guianas. Surplus is expected to continue in central areas of Rio Grande do Sul, as well as northeastern provinces of Argentina. 

From May through July 2024, exceptional deficits in Brazil are expected to decrease further in size, though will linger in central to southern regions of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso de Sul. Northeastern Bolivia is expected to endure exceptional deficits, as well as some northwestern regions of Argentina. Similarly intense deficits are expected to emerge in southernmost regions of Ecuador. Further north, severe to extreme surplus is expected to appear in the northernmost regions of Colombia. In east-central Venezuela, moderate to severe surplus is expected to occur. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits throughout Brazil to persist. Similarly intense deficits are expected to continue in northeastern Bolivia and northwestern Argentina. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to spread further throughout central Peru.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent study reported that deforestation and climate change exacerbated by humans could cause the Amazon rainforest to collapse by 2050. The study, led by researchers at Federal University of Santa Catarina in Brazil, cited warming temperatures, extreme drought, deforestation, and forest fires as catalysts for the rainforest’s disintegration. “We already knew about all these factors at play, but once we connected the pieces of this complex puzzle, the image was alarming,” Bernardo Flores, lead author of the study, told CNN. “Our findings revealed how the Amazon forest system could enter a phase of self-reinforced collapse sooner than previously thought.” Though the Amazon has maintained resilience against change for over 65 million years, researchers predict that 10% to 47% of the rainforest will be exposed to stresses that could push it to a tipping point, leading to a spiral of negative impacts. 

An analysis conducted by experts of the World Weather Attribution project reported that the current drought conditions in the Amazon were caused more so by human-induced climate change rather than El Niño. Models estimated that contemporary warmer temperatures doubled meteorological drought in the region. Researchers stated that the drought would have been categorized as “severe” without global warming present, instead of the current drought, which is categorically “exceptional.”  

Nearly 123 people have been killed by wildfires in central Chile over the first week of February. The fires emerged during a heatwave, pushing temperatures in the city of Santiago to nearly 100 degrees Fahrenheit. A recent study showed that climate change has lengthened fire seasons by an average of 18.7%, which increases the window for disastrous fires to start.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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