Africa: Surplus expands in East Africa, Sahel

Africa: Surplus expands in East Africa, Sahel

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to diminish in eastern regions of the Sahara, but continue in western regions. Surplus is expected to emerge in the Sahel and expand in East Africa. Southern Africa can anticipate persistent pockets of intense deficit. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Throughout the majority of Algeria and Mauritania, as well as northern Mali, in the Salam region. 

  • Throughout most of Morocco and Western Sahara.

  • Western Libya, spreading throughout the Nalut and Jabal al Gharbi districts, as well as throughout the Fezzan region. Similar deficits are expected to appear in the country’s northeastern coastal regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea, which continue into eastern Egypt, along the Nile River. 

  • Most central regions of Botswana, which continue north into southern Namibia. Nearby, central regions of Zambia can expect similar deficits. 

  • Northern and southern coastal regions of Madagascar, near the cities of Mahajanga and Toliara. 

Severe deficits are expected to emerge in: 

  • Southeast Libya, throughout the Kufra District, continuing into Sudan’s Northern state. 

  • Northern Niger, widespread throughout the Agadez region.  

  • Northeast Democratic Republic of Congo, within the Équateur Province.

  • Along southern coastal regions of Liberia, Ivory Coast, and Ghana. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southern Mali, throughout regions near the city of Bamako and throughout much of Burkina Faso. 

  • Chad, widespread throughout central and southern regions, as well as southern portions of Sudan, throughout South Sudan, Ethiopia, and central Somalia. 

  • Throughout most of Uganda and Tanzania. 

  • Northern Zambia, in the Northern province, as well as western coastal regions of Angola. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 anticipates most of North Africa to experience moderate to severe drought, particularly in southwestern to central Algeria and northeastern regions of Niger. Some exceptional deficit is expected in central regions of the region, specifically in central Nigeria, Central African Republic, and throughout southern Sudan. Severe to extreme deficits are expected in western to northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as in regions along the border of southern Zimbabwe and northern Botswana. Surplus is expected to linger throughout Tanzania, Uganda, and southern Somalia. 

From May through July 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to appear in central and southwestern regions of Algeria, northern Mali, central Niger, and west-central Libya. Surpluses in East Africa are expected to intensify, specifically throughout South Sudan, southern Sudan, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. Most southern countries can anticipate abnormal deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficit in Algeria and Mali to continue. Surpluses in East Africa are expected to intensify to extreme to exceptional surplus, with moderate to severe surplus continuing into southern Chad, throughout Niger, and Burkina Faso, and southern Mali. Tanzania is expected to endure continued moderate surplus. Further south, southern regions of Mozambique, eastern Namibia, and western to central Botswana can anticipate pockets of exceptional deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A new analysis by the World Weather Attribution Initiative found that the devastating drought throughout the Horn of Africa would not have happened without human-induced climate change. The drought, documented as the worst drought in the last 40 years for the region, worsened food security issues for over 20 million locals. In Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia, the drought has caused tens of thousands of deaths, destruction of regional crops, depletion of livestock, and severe water insecurity. 

Record-breaking drought in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia is expected to push an increase in wheat imports in the 2024/2025 season. As the region is the largest wheat-importing region in the world, last year’s imports rose to the highest level in seven years amid a record-setting drought. Now, regional drought indexes for North African countries have increased to reach the highest point annually since 2003. 

A recent study found that drought is expected to worsen HIV transmission rates in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in women residing in rural regions of the area. The study described observations of behavioral changes in people as they combat poverty and food insecurity, including the increase of activities such as transactional sex in exchange for resources and the inherent risk of HIV infection in at-risk communities. Drought in the region is expected to become increasingly common in the future due to climate change, with recent analysis stating the percentage of land in sub-Saharan Africa experiencing severe drought has increased from approximately 5% to 15% since 1901.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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