Middle East: Deficits continue in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

Middle East: Deficits continue in S Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 expects exceptional deficits to expand throughout most Middle Eastern countries, with the highest concentrations occurring in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and Iran. Western portions of Yemen and southwestern Saudi Arabia are expected to observe surpluses of varying intensity. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Saudi Arabia, primarily throughout the Riyadh, Makkah, Asir, and Najran provinces, as well as the Eastern Region. These deficits continue into western areas of the United Arab Emirates. 

  • Yemen and Oman, widespread throughout both countries. 

  • Iran, spreading throughout the Fars, Kerman, Sistan and Baluchistan, Yazd, and South Khorasan provinces.  

  • Iraq, in eastern portions of the Al-Ahbar province and in regions southeast of Razzaza Lake. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Western Turkey, in areas south of the Sea of Marmara.

  • Yemen, in western coastal regions bordering the Red Sea, which continue into southwestern Saudi Arabia. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 anticipates widespread exceptional deficits to significantly decrease in size throughout the majority of the region. Some deficits will persist in southeastern regions of Saudi Arabia, as well as throughout Yemen and Oman. Small, isolated pockets of extreme to exceptional deficit are expected to occur in central United Arab Emirates, southwestern regions of Iran’s Fars Province, and central regions of Jordan. Surpluses are expected to diminish in western Turkey, but emerge in eastern regions of the country. 

From May through July 2024, exceptional deficits in Yemen and Oman are expected to decrease in size significantly, but still persist in eastern Yemen and southern to central coastal regions of Oman. Exceptional deficits are expected to reappear in southwestern Saudi Arabia, as well as in southwestern to central regions of Iran. Isolated pockets of similarly intense deficits are expected to appear in regions bordering northern Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as well as eastern regions of Iraq, in southern regions of the Qal'at Saleh. Further north, severe to extreme deficits are anticipated in northern coastal regions of Iran bordering the Caspian Sea. Some surplus is expected to reappear in western regions of Yemen. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits to further decrease in size in south-central Saudi Arabia, but expand in eastern Iraq and throughout western, southern, and eastern Iran. Northern coastal regions near the Caspian Sea are expected to intensify. Surplus in western Yemen is expected to intensify and continue further north into southwestern Saudi Arabia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.
IMPACTS
A warmer-than-average winter is negatively affecting snow levels in Afghanistan, further worsening climate and drought conditions, as well as access to potable water in the midst of the country’s worst drought in 30 years. Between Oct. 1, 2023, and Jan. 15, 2024, Afghanistan experienced just 45% to 60% of the average precipitation compared with previous years. Experts also anticipate that temperatures will be higher than their historical average from February to April 2024. Afghanistan is one of the world’s most vulnerable places to climate change. Almost 25 out of 34 provinces are currently suffering from severe or catastrophic drought conditions, affecting more than 20 million people.

Iran’s Lake Urmia, once considered the largest lake in the Middle East, has been consistently drying up for years due to drought, excessive water use, dam construction, and diversion of rivers. “We are witnessing a tragedy take place right before our eyes,” says Kaveh Madani, director of the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health. “What is happening to Lake Urmia is the result of water mismanagement in the lake basin and aggressive upstream water withdrawal,” adds Madani. 

Sahar Tajbakhsh, head of Iran’s Meteorological Organization, recently issued a warning regarding the unprecedented temperature increases forecast for the country. “This year the country has experienced the hottest November-December in the past 33 years," said Tajbakhsh. In addition to increasing temperatures, total precipitation in Iran has been below the long-term average from the beginning of the hydrological year in October, up until February 8th. This situation is occurring despite several notable periods of rain and snowfall in widespread areas of Iran. As of January 23, 339 cities in Iran are experiencing water shortages, according to the National Water and Wastewater Company, indicating an increase compared to last year.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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