Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue in western Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits continue in western Russia

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in western Russia to persist, but decrease in size. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Russia, within the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Northwestern Russia, throughout northern regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, particularly within the Tazovsky District and near the settlement of Novy Port. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout southern, central, and eastern areas of the Irkutsk Oblast, continuing into the Olekminsky Ulus District and southern portions of the Sakha Republic.

  • Central regions of Uzbekistan, continuing south into northern, northwestern, and central Turkmenistan. 

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southwestern Russia, throughout the Omsk Oblast, stretching further west into the Chelyabinsk Oblast. 

  • Kazakhstan, widespread throughout northern and eastern regions of the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through April 2024 indicates severe to exceptional surplus will expand significantly throughout western Russia, covering much of the Sverdlovsk Oblast, Perm Krai, and Komi Republic. These surpluses continue further south into northwestern to northern Kazakhstan, with similarly intense surpluses continuing in easternmost portions of the country. Intense deficits are expected to appear in the Sverdlovsk Oblast, which continue farther east, stretching into southern areas of Lake Baikal and further northwest into southern to central regions of the Sahka Republic. Nearby, severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in the Irkutsk Oblast, in areas within the northern Sakha Republic, and southern portions of Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District. 

From May through July 2024, severe to exceptional deficits are expected to expand in size in regions west of Lake Baikal, in the Irkutsk Oblast. Similarly intense deficits are expected to continue in regions further east, in the Kalarsky District of the Zabaykalsky Krai, as well as the Lensky Ulus within the Sakha Republic. Northern regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug can anticipate severe to extreme deficits to persist. Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated to continue in northern to northwestern Kazakhstan, as well as in the Olenyoksky District of the Sakha Republic. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates severe to extreme deficits to linger in northern regions of Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and in the Omsk Oblast. Similarly intense deficits are expected to occur further east in central Russia, in most regions north and northwest of Lake Baikal. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to continue in northern to northwestern Kazakhstan and regions along the southwestern Russian border. Similarly intense surpluses are expected to emerge in northern portions of the Sakha Republic.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The Aral Sea, once one of the world's largest lakes, has shrunk to less than a quarter of its previous size, all due to human interference and climate change. In the northern area of Uzbekistan, near the town of Muynak, the Aral Sea's slow disappearance due to climate change is not only transforming the environment but also irreparably impacting the lives of its population. As the surrounding environment deteriorates and water becomes scarcer, residents are compelled to travel further in pursuit of this critical resource. A major decline in fish species, violent storms, and health problems caused by airborne contaminants are just a few of the repercussions that the residents of the Aral Sea basin are now experiencing on a daily basis.

Recent research has discovered that large quantities of aerosol particles are generated across much of the West Siberian taiga during the spring season. These findings suggest that rising temperatures would affect the region’s climate on a major scale. Previous studies have suggested that particle formation is rare in Siberia. However, a recent study by the University of Helsinki showed that particle formation in Siberia was frequent and was connected to heat conditions. The results of the study were published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. “Our results suggest that large amounts of aerosol particles can be formed over vast areas of the West Siberian taiga in the spring, in contrast to what was previously assumed,” said Olga Garmash and Ekaterina Ezhova from the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research at the University of Helsinki.

On February 21, Aziz Abdukhakimov, the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change of Uzbekistan, met with representatives of the UAE International Center for Biosaline Agriculture to initiate collaborative efforts to slow land degradation and implement sustainable agricultural practices in the the Karakalpakstan region. The $1.09mn funded project, titled "Development of Sustainable Agricultural Production Systems in the Degraded Areas of Karakalpakstan,” aims to enhance the resilience of farmers in Karakalpakstan and mitigate economic losses associated with land degradation. The project proposes various initiatives, including establishing a Genetic Resources Bank, more scientific research on drought-resilient and waterproof crops, agricultural training programs, and modernized equipment for soil research laboratories.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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