Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Intense, widespread surplus in Maritime SE Asia

sOUTHEAST aSIA AND THE pACIFIC: Intense, widespread surplus in Maritime SE Asia

24 February 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in October 2024 indicates that lingering deficits throughout Maritime Southeast Asia will mostly resolve, instead becoming severe to exceptional surpluses across much of the region. Similarly intense surpluses are expected in Peninsular Malaysia. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Peninsular Malaysia, widespread throughout most of the region. 

  • Indonesia, with the highest concentrations lingering in northern Sumatra, northwestern to northern Kalimantan, and central Sulawesi. 

  • Papua and Papua New Guinea, appearing across north-central areas of both regions. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Indonesia, in eastern regions of the Lesser Sunda Islands. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through April 2024 anticipates extreme to exceptional surplus to linger throughout most of Maritime Southeast Asia, with surplus intensifying throughout Indonesia. Particular areas to be affected include northern Sumatra, most of Kalimantan, and central Sulawesi. Regions of central Papua can also expect surpluses of similar intensity. Southern coastal regions of Papua and Papua New Guinea can anticipate severe to extreme deficits. 

From May through July 2024, most countries in Southeast Asia should expect mostly near-normal to abnormal conditions, though moderate to severe surplus is expected throughout Sarawak. 

The forecast for the final months – August 2024 through October 2024 – anticipates that severe to moderate surplus will emerge throughout most of Maritime Southeast Asia, predominantly in Kalimantan, Java, and Sulawesi. Papua and Papua New Guinea are expected to also experience similarly intense surplus in southern and central portions of the regions.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Cambodia, increasingly warmer and drier wet seasons in the upper basin of the Mekong River are affecting sufficient accessibility to water for generating hydropower. Dams in the area are consistently failing to fill local reservoirs, causing locals to question the viability and sustainability of hydropower. Dams hold back water during the wet-season months to refill reservoirs and have exacerbated severe droughts experienced by people and ecosystems downstream. Water releases to generate power have at times doubled the amount of water during certain dry-season months. These disruptions of the river system’s natural seasonal flow profoundly affected downstream ecosystems, livelihoods and communities. Dam operations rein in the river’s seasonal “flood pulse” that drives key processes, such as the timing of fish migrations and the annual expansion of Cambodia’s Tonle Sap Lake. 

Recent intense weather has caused a series of floods and landslides in many regions of Indonesia. Several regions on Sumatra were recently flooded, including the Ogan Ilir regency in South Sumatra, as well as the Bungo regency in Jambi. In Ogan Ilir, heavy rainfall deluged three villages. Floodwaters reached up to 40 centimeters and affected 183 families. Disaster authorities are still struggling to properly manage the flood in Jambi’s Bungo regency, which reported seven districts as flooded. The rain caused the Batang Tebo River to overflow, flooding over 14,300 houses and displacing 53,000 residents.

Officials in Malaysia are shifting flood management strategies towards methods using AI and data analytics, closely following recent innovations implemented in Osaka, Japan. Led by the National Disaster Management Agency and the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, this initiative assists Malaysia in adopting predictive analytic technologies for flood patterns, helping to produce more accurate forecasts and minimize weather-related damages. Malaysia’s Deputy Prime Minister of Malaysia, Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, recently visited Osaka to learn from Osaka’s success, emphasizing the importance of strategic investments in technology and infrastructure to augment Malaysia's disaster management capabilities.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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