Africa: Surplus to emerge in the Sahel, deficits continue in Sahara

22 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that deficits will remain in many regions of the Sahara Desert and in some central and southern countries. Surpluses are expected to emerge in the Sahel, as well as in parts of Tanzania and Angola.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Much of the Sahara Desert, covering most portions of Mauritania, Mali, and Algeria. Northern and eastern regions of Egypt and southwestern to eastern areas of Libya can expect similarly intense deficits.
Most regions of Morocco and Western Sahara.
Northern Democratic Republic of Congo, spanning from Bolomba to regions near Ubundu. Central Gabon can expect deficits of similar severity.
Botswana, spreading throughout the Ghazi region, spreading further south and north to Makgadikgadi Pans National Park and the Kgalagadi District.
Zambia, throughout the Western Province, and Namibia, across the Khomas Region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Ethiopia and South Sudan, widespread throughout both countries.
Southern Sudan, in southern areas of South Kordofan. These surpluses continue west into most of central to southern Chad.
Uganda, with the highest concentrations appearing near the Agago region.
Tanzania, widespread throughout the Kululu region.
Northwestern Angola, throughout the Bengo Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 indicates that while the majority of northern Africa can anticipate abnormal to moderate deficits, areas of northwestern Niger, southeastern regions of Libya, and southern regions of Egypt can anticipate extreme to exceptional deficits. Regions that should anticipate similarly intense deficits include central to northeastern Mali, southwestern Algeria, central Nigeria, central Burkina Faso and southern Chad. Western and eastern regions of the Democratic Republic can expect similarly intense deficits, as well as eastern Angola and south-central Zambia. Surplus in Ethiopia is expected to dissipate, while northwestern Angola, southern Somalia, northeastern Zambia, and southern Tanzania can expect severe to exceptional surplus.

From June through August 2024, pockets of deficits are expected to further downgrade throughout most of Africa. Some regions will still endure exceptional deficits, including central to southeastern Algeria, central Libya, and northwestern Niger. Surplus is expected to emerge throughout most of the Sahel, spreading far easter from southern Mali to the Central African Republic and Ethiopia. Surpluses continue further south, spreading throughout Uganda and into most of Tanzania, with exceptional surpluses appearing in southernmost regions of Tanzania. Northwestern Angola can anticipate moderate to severe surpluses to linger, with exceptional deficits appearing in the country’s eastern regions and into western Botswana.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – indicates that deficits will emerge in eastern Mauritania. Similarly intense deficits will persist in Mali, Algeria, and east-central Libya. Surplus is expected to persist across the Sahel, as well as throughout Uganda and Tanzania. Deficits may persist in western Zambia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Morocco has led to public baths in all cities to close three days a week in an effort to conserve water. However, some have voiced outrage over officials not imposing water restrictions in upscale hotels, swimming pools, spas, or agricultural areas, which use most of Morocco’s water. “This measure does not seem to be of much benefit, especially since the bathroom is not considered one of the facilities that consumes the most water,” stated Moroccan Parliament member Fatima Zahra Bata to Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit in February. She stated concern that closing the bathrooms would “increase the suffering of the class whose monthly income does not exceed two thousand dirhams, or three thousand dirhams at best, and the fragility of their situation.”

In Tunisia, potable water prices have been increased due to drought. The highest increase is for consumers whose usage exceeds 150 cubic meters per period, which has increased by 16 percent. Though average rainfall has increased in recent months, Tunisian dams are reportedly only at 35 percent capacity. The country imposed a quota system in 2023 for drinking water, as well as a ban on its use in agriculture. Additionally, Tunisia has launched water desalination plants to supplement the country’s water supply to make up for the lack of dams and the impact of climate change.

Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema recently categorized the country's current drought as a national emergency, as it has stifled food production and electricity generation in the midst of a recent deadly cholera outbreak. Hichilema stated that 84 out of 116 regions in the country are affected by the drought, and that authorities would distribute food to areas in need. Hichilema also reported that the drought had destroyed nearly 2.5 million acres of the 5.4 million acres designated for the region’s staple crop, maize.

The figure above depicts the fraction of population exposed to long-term (12-month) surface water anomalies in Zambia starting in January 2010 and ending in February 2024. Note the exceptionally dry conditions starting in late 2023 and forecast to continue through most of 2024.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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