Europe: Widespread surpluses continue

22 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 anticipates widespread surpluses in Continental Europe and the United Kingdom to diminish in severity but persist throughout most countries. Deficits are expected to mostly disappear from Continental Europe, but continue in coastal regions of Spain and Sicily.

Moderate to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Northeastern Germany, in most northwestern regions of Lower Saxony.
Southeastern France, spread throughout regions near the Écrins National Park. These surpluses reappear nearby in easternmost regions of Switzerland and western and central Austria.
Widespread throughout Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.
Northeastern Ukraine, widespread throughout the Kharkiv Oblast.
The United Kingdom, throughout the county of Norfolk.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Along the entirety of Spain’s eastern and southeastern coasts.
Southernmost coastal regions of Italy, and throughout Sardinia.

Transitional conditions are expected to emerge in:

Widespread throughout northern Germany, expanding north into most of Denmark.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates intense surpluses in Continental Europe will significantly diminish. Some severe to extreme surpluses are expected to linger in northern Italy, Switzerland, Austria, and central Slovakia. Further north, exceptional surpluses are expected in southeastern Norway, near the city of Oslo, as well as along the country’s southeastern coast. Similarly intense surpluses are expected to appear in most of central Sweden and throughout Finland. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to linger but downgrade in intensity, along Spain’s eastern and southeastern coasts, as well as southern Italy and Sardinia.

From June through August 2024, most regions of Europe can anticipate intense anomalies to disappear, as most regions will observe mostly near normal to abnormal anomalies. Denmark is expected to endure severe to extreme deficits, as well as some southern regions of Finland, Norway, and Italy. Persisting deficits in Sardinia are expected to spread further south into coastal regions of the island.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates mostly near-normal to abnormal anomalies to persist throughout most regions of Europe. However, Denmark and Finland are expected to observe continued deficits.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On March 13th, the European Commission stated that it was taking Greece to the court of the European Union after the country failed to revise its flood risk management plans. The action comes five months after Greece recorded devastating rain in Thessaly, which destroyed fertile plains, devastating crops and livestock. Under rules of the EU, countries must update their flood management plans once every six years to help them mitigate the risks of climate change and its effects on human, environmental, and economic health. Greece was notified last year that it needed to finalize its management plans, but the country failed to do so. "The Commission considers that efforts by the Greek authorities have, to date, been insufficient and is therefore referring Greece to the Court of Justice of the European Union," it added.

Experts at the European Environment Agency recently ran its first ever climate risk assessment, which deemed that Europe is not prepared to deal with the region’s escalating climate extremes. The agency said Europe is prone to more frequent and severe weather extremes, including more frequent wildfires, drought, and flooding, and that they need to be addressed in order to protect its residents and resources. The report identified 36 major climate risks for the continent, with eight needing urgent attention, including conservation of ecosystems, protecting people against heat, increasing infrastructure resilience from floods and wildfires, and securing relief funds for disasters.

Extreme weather in Italy and France brought avalanches, floods, and landslides to the countries, causing two deaths, one of a sixteen year old boy. The boy died after being hit by an avalanche while skiing in Italy’s South Tyrol region. The avalanche was categorized as level three, or “considerable” on Europe’s avalanche danger scale. Additionally, over 6,000 Europeans in the Alpine region have been isolated as of March 10th due to avalanches destroying roads and blocking tunnels. Heavy snow also cut off access to several Alpine resorts in southeastern France, with some regions reporting 50 centimeters of snowfall overnight.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags