Canada: Exceptional deficits will persist in most provinces

25 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that while existing exceptional deficits will downgrade in size and severity, they will persist in portions of most provinces.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

NE and central British Columbia, near the Omineca Protected Area and Northern Rockies region, which continues east into northwestern Alberta.
Widespread throughout northern to central Saskatchewan, which extends daughter east into western Manitoba, in areas near Lake Winnipeg.
Southern to southeastern Ontario, in areas directly north of Lake Superior, as well as areas bordering the coast of the Hudson Bay. Similarly deficits appear in western coastal regions of Quebec along the Hudson Bay.
Northern Yukon, in regions south of Whitefish Station. These deficits continue east along the Mackenzie River into Northwest Territories, throughout areas surrounding Great Bear Lake. Exceptional deficits are also expected in areas southeast of Great Slave Lake.
Nunavut, in western regions of the Kitikmeot Region, and southern areas of the Kivalliq Region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Nunavut, throughout Baffin Island.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates deficits to remain throughout central and northeastern British Columbia, northwestern to eastern Alberta, and Saskatchewan. Regions northwest of Lake Winnipeg can expect similarly intense deficits. Central regions of Ontario north of Lake Superior are expected to observe exceptional deficits. Further north, deficits are expected to remain in northern Yukon and along the Mackenzie River, which continues into Northwest Territories. Exceptional deficits in western and southern Yukon are expected to broaden in size. Some regions of Canada are expected to experience moderate to severe surplus, including central and northern Quebec, Newfoundland, northeastern Ontario, northern British Columbia, and much of Yukon. Areas of Nunavut are expected to endure extreme to exceptional surplus, particularly in Baffin Island and regions west of the Northwestern Passages.

From June through August 2024, most surplus anomalies throughout the country are expected to diminish. Deficits are expected to continue in northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, and the majority of central to northern Saskatchewan. Areas northwest of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba can expect similarly intense deficits. Southern regions of Ontario, particularly ones north of Lake Superior, should anticipate exceptional deficits. Northwestern coastal regions of Quebec are expected to observe severe deficits. Regions of Newfoundland and Labrador are also expected to observe widespread severe deficits, with some pockets of exceptional deficits.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – expects deficits in Alberta, British Columbia, and Saskatchewan to further decrease in size, becoming a mixture of near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits. Abnormal to moderate deficits are expected to appear throughout Nunavut and Northwest Territories.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As the Canadian Prairies endure a multi-year drought, ranchers in the area have started to reduce or entirely sell off their herds. One farmer, Bart Guyon, stated that he reduced his bison herd by 30, his cattle by roughly 50, and his elk by 60. "We're reducing them based on the fact that we're having a harder time producing [feed] off this farm," Guyon said. He said some farmers may have also contemplated selling because of other reasons, like lack of feed, but the drought was the catalyst that pushed them over the edge. "It's very concerning. I mean, weather basically dictates the whole [agriculture] industry, it truly does."

Farmers and oil companies in Alberta have started to anticipate water restrictions, as the province enters its fourth consecutive year of drought. The drought is expected to limit the production of wheat, beef, and crude oil, all of which are key exports for the rest of the country. Officials have opened water sharing negotiations for the first time in two decades in an effort to salvage production. Hydrologists anticipate that Alberta will observe more rain in the future rather than snow, due to climate change, which will drain water supplies in the summer. Brad Deleeuw, manager of the 5,500-head Delta Cattle feedlot near Coaldale, Alberta, said the impact of water scarcity could be major, citing worry over financial losses.

Canadian researchers recently published a new study on the 2023 wildfire season, recording it as a record-breaking year. The wildfire season, which spanned from April 2023 to November 2023, profoundly impacted air quality for Canadians, worsening health issues due to mass amounts of smoke. Ellen Whitman, a forest fire research scientist with Natural Resources Canada in the Canadian Forest Service, and one of the authors of the new study, stated that the residual impacts of the 2023 season will make the 2024 wildfire season challenging due to the lack of recovery from the drought, particularly in Alberta.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags