Middle East: Deficits expand throughout southern countries

26 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will expand in size throughout southern regions of the Middle East, as well as throughout Iraq and Iran. Intense surplus is expected to arise in western Yemen.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Saudi Arabia, throughout much of the Riyadh, Makkah, Asir, and Najran provinces. These deficits will also cover much of the Eastern Region.
Central to eastern Yemen, covering much of the region, continuing east and covering much of western to central Oman.
The majority of central Iraq, covering areas surrounding the Therthar and Habbaniyah lakes. These deficits spread into western and eastern portions of the country and continue into much of Iran.
Israel, covering much of the country’s southern region.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Western Yemen, spreading through most of the Al Hudaydah Governorate.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia will transition into abnormal to moderate deficits, though exceptional deficits will continue in southeastern regions of the country. Yemen and Oman are expected to endure widespread exceptional deficits. Further north, southern Israel is expected to observe continued exceptional deficits. Southeastern Iraq and southwestern Iran can anticipate moderate to severe deficits. Widespread surplus in eastern Turkey is expected to mostly subside, with moderate to severe deficits appearing in southwestern regions of the country.

From June through August 2024, most exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman are expected to subside, though some will still remain in regions in the Saudi Arabian city of Riyadh and along the southern coast of Oman. Western Yemen can expect intense surpluses to reappear in the Al Hidayah Governatore. Exceptional deficits are expected to reemerge across most of southern Iran, as well as in the Dhi Qar Governorate in Iraq. Northeastern coastal regions of Turkey along the Black Sea can anticipate severe to extreme deficits to arise.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – indicates that central Saudi Arabia will experience continued exceptional deficit, as well as southern coastal regions of Yemen and Oman. Intense deficits will continue in southeastern Iraq and across southern Iran. Western Yemen can anticipate extreme to exceptional surplus to continue.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Recently, Iran’s water resources were assessed from September 23, 2023, to March 16, 2024. The findings concluded that 33 major dams are at lower levels than in 2022, with the volume of reservoirs having decreased by more than 10% compared to the previous year. Recent heavy rainfall in drought-stricken Iraq has temporarily replenished the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. In mid-February, levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rose by 1.5 to 3 meters, which helped nearby crops and restored portions of southern Iraq. In an announcement, the Iraqi Water Resources Ministry stated that the water levels in rivers and storage systems had risen because of the rains. “The rains led to an increase in water levels in the tributaries of the Tigris River, and some areas in the east of the country were exposed to floods, which was reflected in an increase in the country’s water reserves, allowing it to be used within the framework of securing the needs for the next summer season,” the ministry said. In a 2022 report, The Iraqi Agriculture Ministry said that the water shortage had caused the amount of desertified land in Iraq to reach nearly 27,000 square kilometers, which is about 6% of the country.

On March 19th, Iran officially fell short of its plan to expand its renewable energy capacity for the previous fiscal year. The country added less than 75 megawatts of renewable energy capacity of the projected 2,500 megawatts, totalling at less than 3 percent. Iran’s total renewable energy capacity currently amounts to 879 megawatts – less than 1% of the country's total electricity generation capacity. Additionally, Iran's greenhouse gas emissions have doubled since 2000, equaling to nearly one billion tons annually. As a result, Iran has become the sixth largest emitter of greenhouse gasses worldwide.

Yemen still faces severe humanitarian threats in 2024. The United Nations Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs recently reported that the country will have major vulnerabilities this year due to severe economic deterioration, destroyed infrastructure, and collapse of essential services. These poor conditions are due to conflict, drought, floods, lack of water, and disease outbreaks. In Yemen’s hospitals, the rate of diseases that are preventable by vaccine has notably increased, such as measles. The World Food Programme (WFP) recently identified eight acute food insecurity “hotspots” of very high concern from November 2023 to April 2024, which included Yemen. The agency said that in Yemen, acute food insecurity “is expected to remain at critical levels, amid the protracted economic crisis worsened by an anticipated reduction in humanitarian assistance.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags