Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus emerges in S Mexico, Central America

03 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that most intense deficits throughout Mexico and Central America will diminish. However, exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern and east-central regions of Mexico. Regions within the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America can anticipate moderate to severe surplus.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northwestern Mexico, throughout central and southern regions of Sonora.
Central Mexico, near Mexico City.
Central Guatemala, throughout areas surrounding Lake Izabal, moving into areas along the western border of Honduras.
Throughout Baja California Sur and southern Baja California.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Mexico, throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.
Honduras, covering most central and southern areas of the country.

Transitional conditions are anticipated in:

Western Honduras, throughout the Santa Barbara department, spreading into central Guatemala.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern Mexico, with similarly intense anomalies arising along the coasts of Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan. Pockets of exceptional deficits are also expected to continue in areas near Mexico City. Exceptional deficits will continue in central Guatemala and western Honduras, with some moderate to severe surplus persisting in southeastern Honduras.

From June through August 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to continue in northwestern Mexico, but diminish in most other portions of the country, becoming abnormal to moderate deficits. In Central America, abnormal to moderate surplus is expected to expand to coastal regions of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. The majority of Costa Rica is expected to observe moderate to severe surplus.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates deficits in northwestern Mexico to linger, though will mostly downgrade from exceptional to severe. North-central Mexico may experience pockets of exceptional deficit. Much of the Yucatan Peninsula can anticipate severe to extreme surplus to emerge.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Mexico City continues to face prolonged drought, neighborhoods are being forced to ration water usage. In addition to high temperatures and insufficient rainfall stifling supplies, water scarcity is being exacerbated further by theft, as criminals have tapped pipelines and collected tens of thousands of liters of water to illegally sell. Water supply systems in several regions of the city are at historic lows due to insufficient rainfall and last year’s El Niño. Experts anticipate parts of the city to reach a “day zero” by June, meaning that there won’t be enough water to pump into the city, even if rain conditions are typical. Experts also stated that the growing scarcity of water is thought to be symptomatic of worsening climate change and its effects on cities worldwide.

The figure above depicts the return period for rolling 12-month average temperature recorded in Mexico City beginning in January 2010 and ending in February 2024. Return period is a measure that characterizes the rarity of an event. For example, a return period of 10 years indicates an event that would occur, on average, once every ten years. Higher return periods indicate more extreme and, therefore, more disruptive anomalies. Note that the temperature in Mexico City has been much warmer than expected since mid-2023 and is forecast to remain hot through 2024.

As the drought continues to affect other parts of Mexico, presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum recently discussed her 30 year water plan in detail during a speech in Guanajuato. “There will be a water plan for León because there have been severe water shortages in the city and in some other cities of Guanajuato,” Sheinbaum, of the pro-government Sigamos Haciendo Historia coalition, was quoted as saying by daily Periódico Correo. “We are working on a hydric plan for the next 30 years, in which efficient water use is a fundamental point. Among the objectives is to include all sectors, not just from a government perspective, but we should build it with the users of water for irrigation, farmers, the productive sector, and the services sectors in all municipalities,” she said, according to daily El Economista.

Experts announced Thursday that the Valle de Bravo reservoir is low due to frequent water transfers and lack of proper infrastructure. On the week of March 11th, the reservoir was at 29.3% of its capacity, notably lower compared to 52% during the same time last year. Communities have voiced concern over the government’s response, saying that the National Water Commission has done little to fix the issue. Moises Jaramillo, a local tour boat operator, said of the Conagua officials, “they don’t do anything. Their response is to come and intimidate us,” in reference to an event the previous week, when the Water Commission put closure stickers on the docks from where the boats launch. “Valle de Bravo lives off this reservoir and basically, tourism,” said Claudia Suárez. “Tourism has gone down between 50 and 60%,” she said, adding “this is snowballing and affecting all levels; I think that property prices have fallen, too.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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