South America: Exceptional deficits continue throughout Brazil

28 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will resolve in some regions of the Bolivarian Nations, but remain widespread throughout much of Brazil and some northern and central regions of the continent.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

The Guianas, along the entirety of the region’s northern coast.
Brazil, across the states of Rodonida, Mato Grosso, and Mato Grosso do Sul. Eastern regions of Amazonas can also anticipate intense concentrations of exceptional deficit.
Eastern Peru, spreading throughout regions near the Sierra Del Divisor National Park and into the Murunahua, Mashco Piro, and Madre De Dios Territorial reserves. These deficits spread further south into northern portions of Bolivia and spread through most central to eastern areas of the country.
Paraguay, widespread throughout the majority of the country.
Northern Chile, throughout the Antofagasta Region, spreading east into western regions of Argentina.

Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in:

Colombia, with pockets appearing in western regions of Putumayo, continuing further north into North Santander.
Southern Venezuela, throughout most of the state of Amazonas.

Moderate to severe surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Eastern Brazil, throughout the state of Espeirito Santo and eastern regions of Minas Gerais.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 anticipates that exceptional deficits in northern and some central regions of Brazil will downgrade to moderate to severe levels. Southern Brazil will endure exceptional deficits in the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. Exceptional deficits in the Guianas and Venezuela will mostly subside, with some anomalies lingering in southern Venezuela and coastal regions of the Guianas. Central and eastern Bolivia can anticipate exceptional deficits to persist. In Uruguay, exceptional deficits are expected to downgrade to severe to extreme anomalies. Similarly intense deficits will remain present in northern Chile, as well as northeastern and central Argentina. Surplus is anticipated to continue in the Brazilian states of Espirito Santo and eastern regions of Minas Gerais.

From June through August 2024, deficits are expected to remerge in most of Peru. Exceptional deficits are expected to linger in central and northeastern Bolivia, as well as southern regions of Brazil. These deficits will continue further south into northern areas of Paraguay. Deficits will dissipate in northern Chile, but remain in northwestern Argentina. Surplus will continue in Espirito Santo and Minas Gerais.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – exceptional deficits are expected to downgrade in Brazil, becoming mostly abnormal to moderate deficits. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to persist throughout Peru. Northern Guyana can expect similarly intense deficits, as well as eastern and west-central Bolivia. Exceptional deficits may persist in regions along the borders of northern Chile and northwestern Argentina.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

Drought and megafires are widespread throughout the Amazonian state of Roraima, which have been worsened by an intense, prolonged El Niño. In February alone, the number of hotspots in the state reached a record high of 2,057. In the second half of February, NASA satellites observed unusually widespread and intense fire activity in the state, as well as thick plumes of smoke covering much of the area. According to Brazil’s federal environmental agency, 23% of the fires recorded are in Indigenous areas, which have affected at least 13 territories. Roraima is one of the smallest of the nine states that make up the Brazilian Amazon, but has already recorded more than half of the Amazon’s fires in the first two months of 2024.

The figure above depicts long-term (12-month) streamflow anomalies in the Brazilian state of Roraima starting in January 2010. Note the extremely low flows beginning in early 2023 and forecast to continue through mid 2024 before beginning to improve.

Brazil is still expected to have a promising crop season for corn and soybeans despite drought and weather concerns. The country is also expected to post its third increase in annual coffee production this year, which has only occurred seven times in 144 years. Experts anticipate that the increase is likely to continue into 2025, mainly due to rising production of robusta beans in the country. The success of the crop is due to some post-frost farming techniques being implemented, such as pruning and expanded use of irrigation, particularly in robusta fields, to help withstand dry weather.

Experts anticipate La Niña to emerge in the coming months, which will heighten the risk of an unusually active hurricane season in the Atlantic, as well as continued drought in South America. The US Climate Prediction Center estimated a 82% chance of La Niña occurring for August, September, and October – an increase from last month’s estimate of 74%. “The numbers edged upwards, not dramatically, and the timing still seems to be the same as to what we were predicting last month,” said forecaster Michelle L’Heureux.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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