Central Asia & Russia: Surpluses emerge in SW Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Surpluses emerge in sW Russia

28 March 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in November 2024 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits in western Russia will mostly subside, though similarly intense deficits will emerge in southeastern Russia. Surpluses are expected to dissipate in east-central Russia in areas near Lake Baikal, with surpluses of equal intensity emerging in southwestern Russia and northern Uzbekistan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Russia, in areas near the Oktyabrsky District in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Northwestern Russia, in coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as in the Yamalsky District and near the settlement of Novy Port. 

  • Southeastern Russia, throughout central and northern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast, as well as the Kalarsky and Tungiro-Olyokminsky Districts.

  • Central regions of Uzbekistan, in the Navoiy Region, which continue into the Daşoguz Region of Turkmenistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Southwestern Russia, beginning in the Orenburg Oblast and spreading east to the Kurgan Oblast.

  • Kazakhstan, widespread throughout the Akmola, Kostanay, Aktobe, West Kazakhstan, and North Kazakhstan Regions.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through May 2024 expects widespread exceptional deficits to occur in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, which continue further east through the Omsk Oblast and into the Irkutsk Oblast. Northern regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug can expect similarly intense deficits to persist. Further east, exceptional deficits are expected to remain widespread in the Zabaykalsky Krai, eastern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast, and southern regions of the Sakha Republic. Central regions of the Krasnoyarsk Krai can expect similarly intense deficits. Further northeast, pockets of surplus are expected to endure in southwestern regions of the Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District and northeastern areas of the Evenkiyski District. Northern regions of the Olenyoksky District can expect widespread surpluses of moderate to extreme intensity. In Kazakhstan, surpluses are expected throughout the Aktobe, Akmola, Kostanay, West Kazakhstan, and North Kazakhstan Regions.

From June through August 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to persist in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as the Nadymsky and Yamalsky Districts. Similar deficits are expected to persist near the settlement of Novy Port. Similarly intense deficits are expected to occur in the Northern Tungiro-Olyokminsky District, the Uvatsky District and in northern coastal regions of the Zapolyarny District. In western Russia, regions within the Oktyabrsky District, in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, can also expect intense deficits.

The forecast for the final months – September 2024 through November 2024 – anticipates most deficits to resolve, though exceptional deficits will still remain in coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Nadymsky District, the Yamalsky District, and near the settlement of Novy Port. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Arsen Zhakanbaev, Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, recently voiced concern over the impending drought due in the spring. According to the minister, drought is anticipated due to it already being observed nearby in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. “The volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir is 300 million cubic meters less than last year. And the volume of water in the Chirchik basin is 100 million cubic meters less than last year. Therefore, the amount of incoming water is small. This year, problems may arise due to the lack of this water,” Zhakanbaev said. 

Environmentalists recently warned that climate change could lead to drought and flooding in both southern and northern regions of Russia. Ecologist Roman Pukalov, Director of the Green Patrol environmental program, stated that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as other regions, which is expected to lead to the melting of permafrost. As more than 60% of Russia is on permafrost, Pukalov warned of foundation subsidence issues, as enterprises, oil pipelines, and the foundations of houses are on frozen soil. Agriculture in the regions is also expected to be negatively affected. “There will also be extreme rains and floods, that is, new crops must be resistant to hail and heavy, prolonged rain,” added Pukalov.

A severe drought has hit the Russian city of Voronezh, in the Teplichny microdistrict. Residents of the area have not had sufficient access to water for several months. Locals report that water only starts to flow after 11:00 P.M., but not everyone is able to access it. Though people have voiced concern to the water utility companies, as well as other relevant organizations, they have not received substantial responses. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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