Canada: Deficits to continue in regions of the West Coast, Prairie Provinces

Canada: Deficits to continue in regions of the West Coast, Prairie Provinces

26 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in areas within the West Coast and Prairie Provinces regions. Some portions of Nunavut will endure surplus ranging from severe to exceptional intensity. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Central and northeastern British Columbia, in areas surrounding Williston Lake and in the Northern Rockies region. These deficits contine into northern Alberta, covering most northwestern to northeastern regions. 

  • Central Saskatchewan, covering much of the Boreal Shield region, spreading into western Manitoba, in places northwest of Lake Winnipeg and along the Nelson River. 

  • Northern coastal regions of Ontario and Quebec bordering the Hudson Bay. 

  • Northwest Territories, in areas surrounding Great Bear Lake, and in places west and southeast of Great Slave Lake. Nunavut can expect similar deficits, in western and southern areas of the Kivalliq Region. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Nunavut, in northern coastal regions of Baffin Island. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through July 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in central to northeastern British Columbia, northern Alberta, central Saskatchewan, and western Manitoba. Deficits are expected to broaden in Northwest Territories, first appearing around Great Bear Lake and continuing south into British Columbia and Alberta.  Western and southern areas of Nunavut’s Kivalliq Region are expected to observe continued deficits. Northernmost portions of Quebec’s Rivière-Koksoak region and much of Baffin Island can expect severe to exceptional surplus. 

From August through October 2024, exceptional deficits in western and central provinces are expected to continue decreasing in size. Isolated pockets of deficits are expected to linger in northeastern British Columbia, northwestern Alberta, and western Saskatchewan. Further north, regions in Northwestern Territories surrounding Great Slave Lake will experience persisting deficits, which also appear southeast of Great Slave Lake. These deficits continue east into southern regions of Nunavut.  

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – widespread exceptional deficits are expected to continue diminishing. However, deficits may continue in northwestern to northern Alberta, northeastern British Columbia, regions near Great Bear Lake, and southern portions of Victoria Island.
Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Increasing temperatures and continuous drought has fueled several fires in western Canada, forcing thousands to evacuate their homes. One of the largest fires, called the Parker Lake Wildfire, is in British Columbia and has burned more than 6,100 acres. Wildfires are also present in neighboring province Alberta, where citizens are being affected by plumes of thick smoke and unhealthy levels of air pollution. Officials in Fort McMurray, a town in Alberta, ordered evaluations as the destructive fires burned more than 13,500 acres. "Conditions in many parts of B.C., and especially in the Prince George Fire Centre (PGFC), are unseasonably dry and more typical of those observed in the late summer. As a result, fuels are more susceptible to ignition and wildfires can spread more quickly," said the British Columbia Wildfire Service.

Alberta's Ministry of Environment reported that they are closely monitoring the province’s drought situation to determine whether emergency declarations will be necessary. Portions of Alberta have seen drought conditions develop for over a week, with 51 water shortage alerts for water management areas. The province uses a five-stage water management response plan, and is currently situated at stage four. 

Scientists in Atlantic Canada are attempting to develop a new breed of potato that is able to withstand problematic growing conditions brought on by climate change. Research scientist Bourlaye Fofana and his team have examined wild potatoes native to the South American Andes to continue the development of a more drought-resistant potato. “We see a lot of problems because genetic diversity among these cultivated commercial varieties is quite narrow,” Fofana said in an interview. “With climate change and heat waves, this lack of genetic diversity could be a big problem in the future.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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