Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe

Europe: Surplus continues in W Europe

21 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 anticipates that while surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, intense deficits will remain in pockets throughout much of western Europe. Southern Europe, especially coastal regions of Italy, Spain, and the Balkans, will experience exceptional deficits. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Southwestern France, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Medoc Peninsula. Similar surpluses are anticipated throughout central Spain, as well as in Belgium and the Netherlands.

  • Denmark, widespread throughout the country. 

  • Switzerland, within the southern Valais canton, which continues east into most of western Austria. Northern Italy can expect similar surplus throughout. 

  • Ukraine, in areas surrounding the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir. 

  • East-central coastal regions of Sweden, as well as most of the southern United Kingdom and Ireland. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Eastern coastal regions of Spain bordering the Iberian Sea. 

  • Southern Italy, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the Province of Foggia, southern coastal areas of the Calabria region, and throughout Sicily. 

  • Northern Serbia, in regions surrounding the city of Novi Sad. These deficits continue into much of Romania, Croatia, and central to eastern Bulgaria.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 anticipates that exceptional surpluses in Continental Europe will mostly dissipate. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to persist in western and northern France, southwestern to central Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Denmark. Similar surplus will persist in southern areas of the United Kingdom and southeastern Ireland. Northern Finland can also anticipate moderate to severe surplus. Exceptional deficits are expected to occur in southern Continental Europe. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and east-central Bulgaria are expected to observe anomalies with the most intensity. Further west, much of Sicily and Italy’s eastern to southern coastal regions will endure exceptional deficits.  

From August through October 2024, most intense anomalies are expected to resolve. Some exceptional deficits are expected in areas of northeastern Sicily and southwestern Italy, as well as northeastern Serbia and southern coastal regions of Greece. Western to northwestern France should anticipate moderate surplus, as well as southernmost portions of the United Kingdom. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates mostly normal to abnormal conditions throughout most European countries. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On May 17th, intense rainfall ravaged portions of Belgium, including the Voeren and Liège regions. The municipality of Voeren saw households and infrastructure destroyed by the rainfall, with mayor Joris Gaens comparing the damages to the region’s catastrophic floods observed three years prior. "A lot of water fell in a very short time, causing the water to flow from the fields and fill the Voer," Mayor Gaens explained, referring to the river Voer. Though the rain has eased, as of May 19th, water continues to flow into Voeren from higher areas in Liège.

The flooding also affected large portions of the German state of Saarland. The German Weather Service (DWD) recorded over 100 liters of rain per square meter in several areas in less than 24 hours. 107 liters were recorded in Saarbrücken-Ensheim and Berus, 103 in the St. Wendel district, and 100 in Saarbrücken Burbach. To compare, about 74 liters of rain per square meter the entire month of April last year, about 74 liters of rain per square meter were measured on average in Saarland, and that was one-sixth more precipitation than normal for that month.

A new report conducted by the European Environment Agency found that one in eight Europeans live in areas that are at-risk of flooding. The European Environment Agency studied the impact of climate change on the entire water cycle, which included drought and forest fires. 5,582 deaths have been recorded in Europe in the last 40 years, and the danger remains high. Additionally, the study found that significant infrastructure also resides in at-risk areas. "Around 15% of industrial facilities in Europe may be located on flood plains," explains Aleksandra Kazmierczak, a climate and health expert at the European Environment Agency. "Infrastructures such as water treatment plants are located further downstream. And more than a third of them in Europe are located on flood plains", she adds. The study also reported that 11% of hospitals reside in high-risk areas.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.