Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits linger in NW, central Mexico

21 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will linger in northwestern and central Mexico, as well as in Central America. Transitional conditions are anticipated in southern Mexico and in pockets of Central America. Eastern portions of the Caribbean can expect surplus to arise.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northwestern Mexico, within the states of Sonora, Chihuahua, and Sinaloa. Southern Baja California and most of Baja California Sur will observe similar deficits.
Eastern Mexico, throughout Veracruz, eastern San Luis Potosi, eastern Guerrero, and western Oaxaca.
Guatemala, widespread throughout central regions of the country, as well as in southern Belize.
Western Honduras, near the city of San Pedro Sula.

Transitional conditions are anticipated in the following regions:

Western Honduras, in regions west of Lake Yojoa. These conditions continue into Eastern Guatemala, in areas south of Izabel Lake.
Southern Mexico, into southern coastal regions of the state of Oaxaca.

Moderate to severe surpluses will appear in:

Southern Honduras, near the city of Tegucigalpa.
Western Nicaragua, in areas west and south of Lake Cocibolca.
Northern to central Costa Rica, with most anomalies appearing in the Guanacaste Province.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 expects deficits in Sonora to continue, and in pockets along Mexico’s eastern coast. These anomalies continue south into coastal regions of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, into central Chiapas. Continuing east, central Guatemala, southern Belize, and western Honduras can anticipate exceptional deficits to persist. Moderate surplus is expected to continue in western coastal regions of Nicaragua into most of Costa Rica. Much of the Dominican Republic and Cuba can expect moderate to severe surplus.

From August through October 2024, deficits in central Mexico are expected to mostly resolve, except for areas near Mexico City and within Sonora. Deficits may emerge in Baja California and Baja California Sur. Moderate to severe surplus is anticipated to appear in southern Mexico, and throughout most of Central America. Surplus will continue in the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – shows intense deficits appearing in north-central regions of Mexico, with similar deficits lingering near Mexico City. Some surplus may continue within the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as in the Dominican Republic and Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As the prolonged drought continues in Mexico, farmers have grown increasingly frustrated with avocado orchards and berry fields of commercial farms, which consume considerable amounts of the water in regions near Mexico City. Much of the state of Michoacan is experiencing drought and its effect on water scarcity, specifically for growing lucrative export crops. Recently, farmers and activists from Villa Madero, a town in Michoacan, organized in protest to rip out illegal water pumps and breach unlicensed irrigation holding ponds, which is expected to cause conflict with avocado growers. These growers reportedly pay protection money to drug cartels.

In Santa Ana Zegache, a town in the Mexican state of Oaxaca, local farmers are attempting to preserve the local bee population during the country’s widespread drought. Local farmers have cited concern over the drought's effect on local flora, which could hurt the local bee population. If the bee population shrinks, farmers are expected to see subsequent threats, according to local beekeeper Eloy Perez. "Without the work of pollination, which is what bees do, there would be no type of food production, from the smallest grass to the gigantic watermelons," he said. Relevant studies have shown that Mexico’s bee populations also are becoming increasingly vulnerable to habitat loss, pesticides, monoculture agriculture, and the spread of pathogens, all affecting overall population health.

Firefighters in Mexico and countries in Central America are fighting widespread wildfires, which are producing large plumes of smoke that carry into areas along the United States’ Gulf Coast. As of May 17th, 168 active wildfires have been reported, which have burned over a quarter of a million acres, and continue to do so. The smoke emitting from these wildfires are affecting air quality and producing vision-obscuring haze throughout southern U.S. states from Texas to Florida. Reportedly 82% of Mexico is experiencing varying levels of dryness, with 70% observing varying levels of drought.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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