ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2024

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST May 2024

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2023 and running through Janaury 2025 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 15, 2024 (pdf).

United States:  Southern California is expected to endure moderate to severe surplus until October 2024.

Canada: Exceptional deficits are expected to continue in regions of the West Coast and Prairie Provinces until October 2024.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean:  Exceptional deficits may persist in northwestern, east-central, and southern regions of Mexico until July 2024 or longer.

South America: Much of southern Brazil and the Bolivarian Nations are expected to observe extreme to exceptional deficits until October 2024 or longer.

Europe:  Western European countries may observe moderate to severe surpluses until July 2024. Southern Europe may experience severe to exceptional deficits until July 2024.

Africa: Regions along the Sahel are expected to observe surpluses of varying intensity until January 2025 or longer.

Middle East: Various southern regions of the Middle East can expect exceptional deficits to emerge until October 2024.

Central Asia and Russia: Much of northern Kazakhstan and regions along the southwestern border of Russia can anticipate intense surpluses until October 2024.

South Asia: The majority of India can expect intense surpluses to appear, continuing into January 2025 or longer.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Intense surplus is expected to occur across most of Maritime Southeast Asia, lasting until January 2025 or longer.

East Asia: Pockets of surplus in eastern regions of Tibet are expected to linger until July 2024.

Australia & New Zealand: Much of northern Australia can anticipate intense surplus to occur throughout the area until October 2024.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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