Africa: Surplus expands throughout Sahel, E Africa

29 April 2024
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Widespread throughout Algeria, Libya, northernmost regions of Egypt, northern Mali, Mauritania, and Tunisia.
Western Sahara and Morocco, covering most of both countries.
Liberia, covering most of the country. These deficits continue north into southern Guinea,
Central Gabon, spreading further into northern regions of the Republic of the Congo, as well as the northern areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The majority of southern to central Zambia and Botswana. Western to central Zimbabwe and eastern Namibia should anticipate similarly widespread deficits.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Many regions within and surrounding the Sahel, including areas of southern Mali, most of Burkina Faso, and northern Nigeria.
Southern to central Chad, southwestern Sudan, the majority of South Sudan, and northern Ethiopia.
Western Angola, with the highest concentrations in areas around the city of Luanda.
Southern Tanzania, in regions south of Nyerere National Park. These anomalies continue further south into northern Mozambique, within the Niassa Hunting Blocks areas.
Northern and northeastern coastal regions of Madagascar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in north-central Algeria, northeastern Niger, southern to southeastern Libya, southwestern Egypt, and northeastern Sudan. Further south, northern regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to observe severe to extreme deficits, which continue further west into Gabon. Exceptional deficits are expected to endure in southern Angola and southern Zambia. In northwestern Angola, exceptional surpluses are expected to persist, as are similar surpluses in southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique.

From July through September 2024, intense surpluses are expected to emerge across the Sahel. Surpluses of similar intensity are expected to linger in eastern regions of the Democratic Republic of Congo, western Angola, southern Tanzania, and northern Mozambique. Exceptional deficits in some northern African countries are expected to expand, particularly in Algeria, western Libya, northern Mali, and eastern Mauritania. Several southern countries are expected to observe similar deficits, particularly in southeastern Angola, southern Zambia, eastern Namibia, and central Botswana.

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – expects widespread surpluses across the Sahel to continue. However, most other African countries can anticipate normal to abnormal conditions. Some exceptional deficits may persist in pockets of Algeria, Western Sahara, and western Mauritania.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Southern Africa is experiencing its driest mid-season spell in over a century, as rainfall in the region has been recorded at lowest in 40 years. In addition to significant food insecurity levels, there is unprecedented scarcity of water impacting people, livestock, and local ecosystems. A state of national disasters have been declared in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe, and has impacted large parts of Angola, Botswana, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia and South Africa. The Regional Interagency Standing Committee (RIASCO) and United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) deem it likely for more countries to declare a national emergency as affected communities’ access to food and water dwindles.

Zambian officials announced that it requires more than $900 million to cope with the country’s current drought – the worst in the country’s history. President Hakainde Hichilema emphasized the need for help, saying nearly half of southern Africa’s population, 20 million people, have been adversely impacted by drought and El Nino. The lack of rain has devastated the agricultural sector, affecting crops and pastures, and has worsened economic conditions and power supplies. Economic growth is projected to decrease from 5.2% to 2.5% this year, and power shortages have jeopardized the country’s plan to boost its copper production. Hichilema also stated that Zambia only has about $51 million of the $940 million it needs to deal with the crisis.

Morocco’s Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries, Rural Development and Water and Forests anticipates a 20 percent loss of its crop yield, as well as a reduction in cultivated areas this year due to drought. On April 16th, Mohamed Sadiki stated that “with regard to autumn and winter crops, the cultivated area has dropped to just 2.5 million hectares, compared with the usual four million hectares in normal years.” Out of these cultivated areas, we will lose 20 percent of their yield due to drought.”

Destructive floods are occurring in regions near the port of Bujumbura due to Lake Tanganyika overflowing from torrential rainfall. The port is the city of Burundi’s economic capital and has significantly stifled the local economy as a result. “We are issuing this statement to ask our development partners to combine efforts with the state of Burundi to help all people affected by these disasters,” Interior Minister Martin Niteretse said on April 17th. “We need that support.” Between September and April 7, at least 203,944 citizens were affected by flooding. Additionally, 19,250 homes and 209 classrooms were destroyed. 25% of locals were internally displaced due to the flooding – over 98,000 individuals.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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