Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N Kazakhstan, NE Russia

Central Asia & Russia: Intense surplus in N Kazakhstan, NE Russia

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 expects exceptional deficits in western and eastern Russia to mostly diminish, but still linger in isolated areas. Similar deficits are expected to continue northwest of Lake Baikal. Intense surplus is anticipated in regions of northern Kazakhstan and northeastern Russia, as are exceptional deficits in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Russia, in isolated areas within the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Northwestern Russia, throughout the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Southeastern Russia, widespread throughout western, southern, and central regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. Similar deficits are anticipated to appear in pockets across the Zabaykalsky Krai. 

  • Central regions of Uzbekistan, as well as throughout Turkmenistan.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northeastern Russia, in the northern regions of the Olenyoksky District, in the Sakha Republic. 

  • Northern Kazakhstan, throughout the Akmola and North Kazakhstan regions.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates an emergence of exceptional deficits in regions west of Lake Baikal, covering most central regions of the Irkutsk Oblast. Similar deficits are expected to persist in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and near the settlement of Novy Port. Exceptional deficits within the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug are expected to decrease in size significantly, but remain present in isolated areas. Exceptional surplus is expected to expand in northern regions of the Olenyoksky District in the Sakha Republic, as well as in central regions of the Krasnoyarsk Krai. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to emerge in northern Kazakhstan. Further south, exceptional deficits are anticipated to emerge in central Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. 

From July through September 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to expand in size throughout the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, as well as in central areas of the Irkutsk Oblast. Surplus is expected to linger in northern Kazakhstan, but mostly diminish in northeastern Russia. Exceptional deficits are expected to endure in central Turkmenistan but mostly diminish in central Uzbekistan, instead emerging in eastern portions of Uzbekistan. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – indicates that normal to abnormal anomalies will cover most of the region, though intense deficits are expected to remain in Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and northern Taymyrsky Dolgano-Nenetsky District, as are severe to extreme surplus in northern Kazakhstan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Director of National Agrarian Research and Education Center, Kirill Pavlov, recently raised concern over the extreme drought and heat expected to worsen for Kazakhstan in the coming summer. He based assumptions on data gathered from the American Ocean Survey. “This year the drought will be stronger than last. This is the result of the El Niño effect, which was recorded at the end of August 2023 by the American Ocean Service…” In Russia, this will also affect our grain market, I think. we respond to all the changes that occur in them,” says Pavlov. He continued to state that he anticipates all regions of Kazakhstan to be affected. 

On April 15th, Russian officials released evacuation warnings for citizens of the Kurgan and Tyumen regions, as well as areas in northern Kazakhstan due to flooding. Tens of thousands of residents were evacuated due to the impending flood conditions. Flooding peaked in Kurgan, which is home to 800,000 people near the confluence of the Ural Mountains and Siberia. Nearby river, the Tobol River, swelled with meltwater and overflowed, rising water levels over 20 feet in the city. Both Russia and Kazakhstan have been dealing with some of the worst flooding in recent memory which occurred after large amounts of snow melted along with intense rainfall occurring in the same regions. Kurgan Governor Vadim Shumkov reported that there was almost a “sea” of water approaching the area and fresh rainfall was making the situation worse. “The city of Kurgan itself will be next,” Shumkov said.

In Russia, intense flooding hit many regions along the Ural Mountains and Siberia. Levels in the Ural River increased over several meters in just hours, which ultimately burst through a dam embankment in the city of Orsk. Over 4,000 of 230,000 Orsk citizens were evacuated. Footage published by the Emergencies Ministry documented people navigating wading through neck-high waters, rescuing animals, and traveling across flooded roads in boats and canoes.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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