Middle East: Deficits to expand in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

Middle East: Deficits to expand in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman to broaden in size. Similar deficits are expected to continue throughout Iran, as well as arise in Iraq and Turkey. Western Yemen is expected to experience exceptional surplus. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Central to southeastern Saudi Arabia, throughout the Riyadh and Al Ahsa provinces. These deficits continue into western areas of the United Arab Emirates. 

  • Central to eastern Yemen, covering much of the country and spreading throughout the majority of Oman.

  • Iraq, appearing in regions southeast of Therthar Lake. 

  • Iran, widespread in most northeastern to southwestern portions of the country. 

  • Southeastern Syria, near the Sokhneh region. These deficits continue into western and northwestern Jordan, Israel, and in Turkey, near along the country’s northeastern coast bordering the Black Sea, and in pockets throughout the Antalya Province.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Western coastal regions of Yemen, continuing into the Sana'a Governorate.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 anticipates that eastern Yemen will endure exceptional deficits, as well as the majority of Oman. Similar deficits will arise near the Al Aflaj Governorate of Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits are expected to be widespread in central Iraq, in the majority of areas surrounding Tharthar Lake. Similar deficits are expected throughout Jordan. In Iran, southwestern coastal regions along the Persian Gulf are expected to observe exceptional deficits. Southwestern regions of Turkey, near the city of Antalya, as well as in northeastern coastal regions bordering the Black Sea. 

From July through September 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in central Saudi Arabia. In Yemen and Oman, exceptional deficits will resolve, becoming abnormal deficits. Western Yemen should anticipate exceptional surpluses to emerge. Pockets of severe to exceptional deficits will continue in southern Iraq, continuing west into regions of Iran, near the city of Dezful. These deficits persist further into north-central and southeastern Iran. In Turkey, exceptional deficits of coastal areas bordering the Black Sea are expected to continue. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in central Saudi Arabia to resolve, becoming abnormal deficits. Exceptional deficits will emerge in southern Yemen, which will continue into western to central Oman. Western Yemen will continue to experience exceptional surpluses. Further north, pockets of severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in west-central and northeastern Turkey, southern Iraq, and southwestern to eastern regions of Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

On April 2nd, the United Arab Emirates experienced intense rainfall which brought over a year and a half’s worth of rain to Dubai in a matter of hours. The rain deluged portions of major highways, as well as its international airport. The heavy downpour that caused widespread flooding in Dubai and other parts of the UAE stemmed partly from cloud seeding, experts said. The desert nation deploys cloud seeding techniques for enhancing rainfall. Cloud seeding poses risks which include flash floods. 

Eight deaths have been reported in the Sistan-Baluchestan region of Iran due to heavy rainfalls and flooding of local rivers. According to the Iranian Red Crescent Society, the flooding collapsed a loader and killed three employees of an Iranian railway company. Majid Mohebbi, the director general of Sistan-Baluchestan’s Crisis Management Department, also reported that the rain closed over 60 roads in southern regions of the province. Telecommunications were also disabled in 60 villages of Zarabad, Konarak and Chabahar due to intense precipitation. 

Experts deemed that the drought in Syria is expected to worsen as studies found that temperature increases of 1.2 degrees Celsius in the country have increased the probability of droughts from one in 250 years to one in 10. If temperatures continue to rise at the same rate, intense drought could occur once every five years. Both low rainfall and elevated evaporational levels are factors in the exacerbation of Syria’s dry conditions, as well drier soil, lowered groundwater levels, and the continuous depletion of local rivers, lakes, and dams. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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