East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China

East Asia: Deficits continue in N, S, and NW China

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western China, throughout eastern Xinjiang, western to central Gansu, and western Inner Mongolia.  

  • Northeastern China, in regions of the Lionang, Jilin, and southern Heilongjiang. 

  • Southern China, in the central regions of the Yunnan province. 

  • North Korea, particularly in the North Hamgyong Province. 

Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Eastern China, within the Shandong and Henan provinces.

  • Southwestern China, in isolated regions of Tibet, specifically near the city of Nagqu.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 indicates that pockets of surplus will expand in Tibet, covering much of the region. Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in eastern regions of Inner Mongolia, eastern Xinjiang, and Gansu. In eastern China, southern portions of Jilin are expected to observe small occurrences of exceptional deficits, with travel further south into northern regions of North Korea. Further south, deficits are expected to persist in the Yunnan province. 

From July through September 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to expand in western Inner Mongolia, spreading further through Gansu and into western Xinjiang. Surplus in eastern China is expected to expand, particularly in the Shandong and Henan provinces.

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits to mostly disappear from northwestern China. Some regions of southern China, particularly Yunnan and Guizhou, may experience severe to extreme deficits. Surplus in the Shandong and Henan provinces are expected to decrease in size but remain present. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On April 21st, government officials of Guangdong issued emergency response plans to protect over 127 million people from dangerous floods in the province. The flooding was caused by overflow of major rivers and reservoirs at the Xinjiang and Beijing river basins as they reached rare spikes in water levels – an event with a 1-in-50 probability in any given year. Guangdong, a major exporter and one of China's main commercial and trading centers, has seen intense rain and strong winds for several days at the time of the report.  

On April 16th, Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing urged to strengthen the country’s resilience against floods, citing flood control and drought relief work as vital practices to protect citizens and their property. “The flood control and drought relief situation this year is complicated and severe,” said Zhang. He said that efforts must be made to consolidate disaster prevention work, reduce damage stemming from natural disasters, and improve disaster relief agencies. “The flood control and drought relief command system should also be strengthened to guard against major flooding and drought,” he added.

Yunnan is facing its worst drought in six decades, which has negatively affected local production of grain, hydroelectric power, and aluminum. The Ministry of Water Resources reported a 42.3 percent decrease in rainfall throughout the region compared to typical levels. Yunnan is one of China’s most productive producers of hydropower, but is facing ongoing challenges to its agriculture and energy systems due to the drought.
NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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