Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Widespread surplus throughout Maritime Southeast Asia

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that exceptional deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia will persist but lessen in size, while intense surpluses will expand throughout Maritime Southeast Asia. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Indonesia, with the highest concentrations appearing in

  •  West and North Kalimantan, and Sarawak in Northern Sumatra near the city of Medan. Sulawesi can also expect widespread surpluses of moderate to severe intensity. 

  • Papua, throughout West Papua and continuing east into the Tolikara and Mappi regencies. 

  • Papua New Guinea, throughout regions near the April Salome Forest Management Area. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Southern to eastern Myanmar, appearing in the Ayeyarwady region and moving further into the Yangon and Bago regions, into the Loi Hkilek Mountains. 

  • Northern Thailand, across northernmost regions of Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai. These deficits continue into northern Laos, throughout areas near the Nam Ha National Biodiversity Conservation Area.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to arise in southern Myanmar, specifically in the Ayeyarwady Region. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected to continue further south, through southernmost Myanmar and into the majority of Southern Thailand and the Malay Peninsula. Northernmost regions of Vietnam are expected to observe extreme to exceptional deficits. Similar deficits are forecast in northern coastal regions of North Sumatra and throughout the Philippines. Exceptional surpluses are expected to appear in northwestern coastal regions of West Kalimantan, with lesser intensity surpluses appearing in central Kalimantan, as well as central Papua. 

From July through September 2024, most intense deficits in Mainland Southeast Asia are expected to dissipate, becoming mostly near normal conditions. In Maritime Southeast Asia, surpluses are expected to be widespread throughout most regions of Indonesia and the southern Philippines, as well as Papua and Papua New Guinea. Northern and central regions of the Philippines are forecast to observe moderate to severe deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates exceptional deficits in northern Vietnam to reemerge. Much of Sumatra may experience moderate to severe deficits. Exceptional surpluses are anticipated to occur in the Lesser Sunda Islands, southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, southern Philippines, and throughout most of southern to central Papua and Papua New Guinea. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
15 deaths have been reported in central Indonesia due to landslides. At least 17 citizens of Tana Toraja in South Sulawesi were evacuated April 13th, with only two people surviving. “According to reports from residents, there are still two individuals reported missing, presumably buried under the landslide debris,” local disaster agency head Sulaiman Maila said the following day. The landslides were triggered by heavy rains and affected Tana Toraja and its surrounding areas.

Intense heat waves have emerged in Southeast Asia and are anticipated to continue. According to an April 10th report from climatologist Maximiliano Herrera, Thailand has had the most hit the hardest, as the country has been “breaking non-stop records” for 13 months. “We thought temperatures last year were unbearable but (what we are seeing) this year has beaten that – temperatures in Bangkok won’t drop below 30 degrees Celsius, even at night for the rest of April,” said Herrera. “The trend is inescapable. The region has to prepare for terrible heat for the rest of April and most of May.” 

Tsunami warnings were issued in Indonesia due to a volcano in North Sulawesi erupting five times over the course of 24 hours. Thousands were evacuated after a volcano on Mount Ruang, located on the Ruang island, spurt lava, rock, ash nearly 3 kilometers into the sky. It initially erupted at 9:45pm local time on April 16th, and then four more times on the 17th. Officials voiced concern over portions of the volcano potentially collapsing into the sea, which would increase the risk for more significant disaster events to occur. Back in 1871, similar conditions occurred in the country, which produced a 25 meter high tsunami.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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