Middle East: Intense deficits continue in Pockets of Levant, Yemen, Oman, Turkey

Middle East: Intense deficits continue in Pockets of Levant, Yemen, Oman, Turkey

26 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that intense deficits will diminish in southern regions of Saudi Arabia, but persist in Yemen and Oman. Deficits will persist in pockets throughout the Levant, as well as in regions of Turkey. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Saudi Arabia, appearing in pockets in areas near the cities of Riyadh and Buraidah, and into southern and southeastern regions of the country. 

  • Most of central to eastern Yemen, as well as western to central Oman. 

  • Israel, spreading across central to southern regions of the country. Similarly intense deficits are expected in central Jordan and south-central Syria. 

  • Throughout pockets of northeastern Iran, as well as in southwestern coastal regions of the country. Iraq can expect similarly intense deficits in regions near the Therthar and Habbaniyah lakes. 

  • Turkey, appearing in pockets throughout most areas west of Tuz Lake. Similar deficits are expected along northeastern coastal regions bordering the Black Sea. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Western Yemen, with pockets continuing north into southwestern Saudi Arabia.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits to appear in southwestern regions of Saudi Arabia. Similar deficits will continue in parts of west-central and eastern Yemen, as well as throughout most of southern to northeastern Oman. Further north, central regions of Israel and Syria are expected to observe severe to exceptional deficits. Similar deficits are expected to persist in pockets throughout southwestern Turkey and along its northeastern coast bordering the Black Sea. 

From August through October 2024, deficits in Yemen are expected to mostly resolve, with surplus appearing in western coastal regions of the country. Exceptional deficits are expected to continue along southern and eastern coastal regions of Oman. Central Saudi Arabia is expected to observe exceptional deficits, as well as southeastern regions of Iraq in the Dhi Qar Governorate. Pockets of exceptional deficits are expected to appear in western to southwestern regions of Iran, as well as across its southern regions, in southern areas of the Kerman Province. Severe to extreme deficits are expected to intensify in central Syria. Similar deficits are expected to persist in southwestern Turkey and northeastern coastal regions. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – expects surpluses to continue in western regions of Yemen, which persist further north into southwestern Saudi Arabia. Central Oman should anticipate exceptional deficits to persist. In northwestern Jordan, moderate to severe deficits are expected to arise. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

A major reservoir in northeastern Iraq is reportedly almost full after the region saw considerable rainfall after four successive years of drought. The reservoir, built behind the massive Darbandikhan dam, is reaching levels not recorded in the region since 2019. "The dam's storage capacity is three million cubic meters (106 million cubic feet). Today, with the available reserves, the dam is only missing 25 centimeters (10 inches) of water to be considered full," said Saman Ismail, director of the Darbandikhan facility. “The last time Darbandikhan was full was in 2019, and since then, we've only had years of drought and shortages," said Ismail. He cited climate change and dam construction beyond Kurdistan's borders as factors in the drought. 

Flooding brought on by intense rainstorms recently killed four hikers in the Sulaimaniyah region of northern Iraq. "Four members of a hiking team drowned because of heavy rains and flooding in the Qaradah district,” said local official Rouf Kamal. Iraq has suffered four consecutive years of drought which has forced many farmers to abandon their land due to lack of sufficient water. However, Ammer al-Jabiri, spokesperson for the Iraqi weather service, expects 2024’s precipitation to be better than last year.

On May 2nd, several flights from the United Arab Emirates to Dubai were canceled due to heavy rains occurring in the UAE. Airport officials required 22 tankers with vacuum pumps to completely remove the water. This rainfall comes shortly after April’s intense, spontaneous rainfall, which brought more than 5.59 inches of rain in 24 hours – over a year’s worth of rain for the region. The flooding two weeks ago quickly overwhelmed the UAE’s drainage systems, flooded out neighborhoods, business districts and even portions of the 12-lane Sheikh Zayed Highway.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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