United States: Pockets of deficit continue in W, S states

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 anticipates most exceptional deficits in the United States to resolve, with most states observing abnormal to moderate deficits. Some pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in western and southern states, with surplus expected to appear in southern California and in noncontiguous areas of the country.

Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the following areas:

Central Texas, in areas near the Edwards Plateau and the Amistad Reservoir.
Colorado, near the Southern Ute Reservation.
Kentucky, in regions near the city of Bowling Green.
Michigan, widespread throughout the Upper Peninsula.
Minnesota, east of Itasca County, Minnesota.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southern California, spreading through Los Angeles and into San Diego.
Nevada, near Walker Lake, as well as near the Four Corners Reservoir in Idaho.
Northwestern Louisiana, near the cities of Shreveport, Ruston, and Monroe.
Southern Florida, in areas south of Lake Okeechobee.
Alaska, with the highest concentrations appearing in the Seward Peninsula. Similar surplus is expected to cover most of Puerto Rico.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 anticipates severe to extreme surplus to diminish in northeastern states, but continue in southern California, as well as in southern Florida. Pockets of moderate to severe surplus are expected to persist in northern Louisiana, and in isolated regions of Nevada, southwestern Idaho, eastern Kansas, and southern Florida. Severe to extreme surplus is expected to cover most of western and northern Alaska, and across most of Puerto Rico.

From August through October 2024, surplus will continue in southern California, Puerto Rico, and northeastern to central areas of Alaska near the Seward Peninsula. Much of Arizona, New Mexico, western Colorado, and the Upper Midwest can expect moderate to severe deficits to persist. Similarly intense deficits are expected in eastern Maine and northern Idaho.

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – indicates that moderate to severe deficits will arise in several southern states, with the most intense anomalies appearing in Texas and Louisiana. Similar deficits are forecast to appear along Alaska’s northern coast. Surplus is expected to occur in central portions of the Pacific Northwest and throughout Puerto Rico.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Medina Lake, a reservoir located in central Texas, has almost entirely disappeared according to local reports. The lake is currently only 2.7 percent full, with its water levels at only 972 feet above sea level. For comparison, the lake was completely full in 2019. Severe, prolonged drought has exacerbated the dry conditions, leading to the disappearance of Medina Lake. As of May 15th, the entirety of Bandera County, in which Medina Lake is located, was suffering from severe drought, with two-thirds suffering from extreme drought.

An analysis from CIRES, an institute from the University of Colorado Boulder, recently reported that the two decade-long drought in the Colorado River may potentially recover due to an expected increase in participation over the next 25 years. Researchers studied Lee's Ferry flows, which are the dividing point of the Colorado's upper and lower basins, citing that "The temperature is warming, but that's not the full story -- you add precipitation and you get a fuller picture," says Balaji Rajagopalan, co-author of the study. "We find it is more likely than not that Lee Ferry flows will be greater during 2026-2050 than since 2000 as a consequence of a more favorable precipitation cycle," says Martin Hoerling, the paper's lead author. "This will compensate for the negative effects of more warming in the near term. There's roughly a 4% chance that Lee Ferry flows could decline another 20% in the next quarter century compared to the last 20 years."

As flooding from the Kuskokwim River in Alaska begins to diminish, individuals in affected areas begin to recover after a series of massive ice floes ravaged their homes. During the week of May 13th, teams flew downriver from Bethel in search of the breakup front, but National Weather Service hydrometeorologist Kyle Van Peursem said that they found that it had basically disappeared. “There’s usually just a lot of chunk ice pushing up against that strong ice, and that’s what we call the breakup front. There was no ice there. It went from open water to spotty, in-place, rotten ice,” Van Peursem said. Though the breakup front is gone, it still affects some areas that are still flooded, making the floodwater slower to disappear.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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