Africa: Surplus emerges in Sahel, deficits persist in NW, central, and S Africa

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will dissipate in areas along the Sahel, but remain widespread in northwestern, central, and southern regions of the continent. Eastern portions of the Sahel can expect surpluses of varying intensity to emerge.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Much of southern Western Sahara and southern to central Morocco.
Western to eastern Mauritania, northern Mali, the majority of Algeria and Libya. Regions along the northern border of Niger can expect similar deficits, which continue east into northwestern Chad.
Most of Guinea and eastern Sierra Leone, as well as western Liberia. Similar deficits are expected in southern Nigeria, northeastern areas of Cameroon, and in western and eastern portions of the Central African Republic.
Northeastern territories of Republic of Congo, which continue to spread throughout northern to central Democratic Republic of Congo.
Western and northern portions of Botswana, western to central Zambia, and along Zambia’s shared border with Zimbabwe. Isolated areas of central Mozambique can expect similar deficits.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

Southern to central regions of Chad, as well as southern Sudan, continuing south to cover the majority of South Sudan.
Most of Uganda, with the most intense anomalies appearing in northeastern areas of the country, spreading into western Kenya.
Northwestern Angola, in coastal regions along Luanda Bay.
Most of southern Tanzania and northernmost areas of Mozambique.
Northern coastal regions of Madagascar.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 indicates that pockets of exceptional deficits will appear in central Algeria, southern Libya, southwestern Egypt, northern Mali, and northern Niger. Several eastern African countries will observe intense surplus, with the most intense anomalies occurring in southern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, northern Angola, and Kenya. South Sudan, south to southwestern Sudan, and eastern regions of Chad can expect moderate to severe surplus. Exceptional deficit is expected to be widespread throughout the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Republic of Congo. Northern coastal regions of Madagascar can anticipate exceptional surplus.

From August through October 2024, exceptional deficits in northern Mali, central to northwestern Algeria, and northwestern Mauritania will continue. Areas along the Sahel can expect widespread surplus to appear, mostly of moderate to extreme intensity. These surpluses continue south into southern Sudan and throughout South Sudan, as well as Uganda, Ethiopia, northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and southern Tanzania. Southeastern Angola, western Zambia, north-central Mozambique, and central Botswana can anticipate pockets of exceptional deficits.

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – expects exceptional deficits to mostly disappear. Some western regions of the Sahel may observe transitional conditions, while central to eastern regions may experience severe to exceptional surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Recent studies confirm that considerable amounts of groundwater are accessible and periodically replenished in the Horn of Africa, which is experiencing its worst drought in half a century. In Somalia, amounts of groundwater equivalent to 400,000 olympic-sized swimming pools was discovered, as well as an aquifer in Tanzania, which is able to provide water for up to two million people. Groundwater volumes across the continent are estimated to be equal to thousands of years of the average total from the Nile River.

A study by the World Weather Attribution found that El Niño caused a record-breaking drought in southern Africa, which ruined crop yields in Zambia, Malawi, and Zimbabwe. Local farmers reported that between January and March, their agricultural areas were hit by heat waves and increased temperatures of up to 9 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal.

Zambia citizen Esnart Chongani recounted that southern Africa hasn’t been hit by a drought of this severity in over a century, and for the first time in her life, have harvested zero crops. “I cannot remember anything like this,” says Chongani. “People are so hungry they are stealing food. The generosity of our community has disappeared, and people are too hungry even to attend church. One of our sons works at a rose farm, and we beg him to buy us food. But it is never enough. If we survive until the next harvest, it will be by the grace of God.”

Nearly 20 million people are at risk of starvation in southern Africa as continuing warfare continues to worsen famine throughout Sudan and drought persists in the south. As many southern African countries rely on farming for food supplies, officials have declared states of emergency after drought destroyed already fragile crops and killed livestock. Zimbabwe declared a state of emergency just last month, shortly after Malawi and Zambia declared similar emergencies. The drought has impacted over 6 million people in Zambia and 9 million in Malawi. “This drought has devastating consequences on many sectors such as agriculture, water availability and energy supply, risking our national food security and the livelihoods of millions of our people,” said Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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