Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to appear in SW Russia, N to E Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus to appear in SW Russia, N to E Kazakhstan

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits widespread throughout Russia will downgrade significantly, though still remain in small, isolated areas of the country. Intense surplus is expected to appear in southwestern regions of Russia and in northern to eastern Kazakhstan. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern Russia, throughout the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Western Russia, with small, isolated areas appearing in central regions of Western Siberia. 

  • Southeastern Russia, in central portions of both Buryatia and the Irkutsk Oblast. 

  • Throughout central Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in: 

  • Northeastern Russia, in northern portions of the Sakha Republic’s Olenyoksky District. 

  • In areas along the northern border of Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia. These surpluses continue south into much of the North Kazakhstan region. 

  • Eastern Kazakhstan, in much of the Kurshim District. These anomalies continue south into southeastern Kazakhstan and into eastern regions of Tajikistan. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 indicates that deficits will intensify in northern coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and in areas within the Tyumen Oblast. Exceptional deficits are expected to appear in areas west of Lake Baikal, in central areas of the Irkutsk Oblast, and in areas further east, in central Zabaykalsky Krai. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to cover most areas along the border of northern Kazakhstan and southwestern Russia. Eastern Kazakhstan and expect similarly intense surpluses to cover most of the area. 

From August through October 2024, deficits in southeastern Russia near Lake Baikal are expected to resolve. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in northern portions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and near the settlement of Novy Port. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue in the Tyumen Oblast. Regions west to Lake Baikal can expect moderate to severe deficits, as well as in central Zabaykalsky Krai. Much of northern Kazakhstan and areas along the border of southwestern Russia can anticipate severe to extreme surpluses to endure. In northernmost Turkmenistan, regions east of Sarygamysh Lake can expect an emergence of exceptional deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates normal to abnormal conditions to continue across most of Central Asia. Moderate to severe deficits may continue in coastal areas of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and in the Tyumen Oblast. Regions along the northern border of Kazakhstan and the southern border of southwestern Russia may observe continued surpluses of severe to extreme intensity.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Kazakhstani experts are anticipating more severe weather events to occur in Kazakhstan. “There is an increase in the frequency and intensity of all extreme weather events, including drought, floods, catastrophic precipitation, storms, downpours. Simply put, there are, unfortunately, going to be more of these phenomena. For example, last year in August rains destroyed up to 30% of the harvest in some regions of Kazakhstan. Already now, there are disappointing forecasts going forward. But it’s good to have time to prepare,” said Kalmykov. Additionally, large swarms of locusts are expected to invade the country due to climate change affecting ecosystems. “If a species does not adapt to changed conditions, it does not survive. It is time for us to act,” he warned. 

Floods have recently devastated regions of Kazakhstan, as well as parts of southern Russia, displacing tens of thousands of people. Additionally, as the floodwaters recede, experts warn of radioactive material leaking out of old uranium mines. Last month, Russian environmentalists warned about a radioactive leak threat at a uranium mine in the region of Kurgan, located in Russia's Urals mountains. These areas have suffered the worst flooding in 80 years and are also experiencing heavy rainfall stemming from large snowfalls. Officials have evacuated tens of thousands of residents from Kurgan and Orenburg in recent weeks as floodwaters rise.

On May 15th, the regions of Lipetsk, Voronezh, and Tambov all declared a state of emergency as intense frosts caused severe damage to their crop yields. "The frosts that hit in early May led to catastrophic consequences," said Igor Artamonov, the governor of the Lipetsk region. Artamonov detailed the destruction present in Voronezh, citing that “the area of dead or severely damaged crops has exceeded 265,000 hectares." 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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