South Asia: Widespread surplus to emerge throughout India

27 May 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in January 2025 indicates that most exceptional deficits in southern India will dissipate, with most of the remaining regions observing moderate to severe surplus. Some northernmost states of India, as well as some pockets of Pakistan, will experience deficits of varying intensity.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

India, widespread throughout most areas from Gujarat to Bihar, as well as central regions near Uttar Pradesh to Punjab and Uttarakhand.
Eastern Afghanistan, in areas of the Patitka Province along the country’s eastern border.
Southwestern Pakistan, in isolated areas of the Balochistan province, near the city of Gwadar.

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Northern India, in southern regions of Ladakh.
Nepal, in areas within the Gandaki Province.
Southern and north-central Pakistan, near the cities of Karachi and Multan.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through July 2024 expects intense deficits in southern India to mostly disappear, but remain near the city of Mumbai. Similar deficits are forecast to emerge in southern Pakistan, in eastern regions of the Balochistan province, and in the Sindh Province. Western Bangladesh is expected to observe a continuation of severe to exceptional deficits, as are isolated regions across Nepal. Severe to exceptional surplus will persist along southern and southeastern coastal regions of the Indian state of Tamil Nadu. Similar surplus is expected in regions along the southeastern border of Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan.

From August through October 2024, intense surplus is expected to remerge in most regions of western, eastern, and north-central India. Similar surplus is anticipated in the southern state of Kerala. Exceptional deficits are expected to persist and intensify in southern coastal regions of Pakistan near Karachi, as well as in pockets of west-central and east-central Afghanistan. Some transitional conditions are anticipated to emerge in central Afghanistan. Northernmost regions of India can expect moderate to severe deficits to continue.

The forecast for the final months – November 2024 through January 2025 – anticipates surplus to expand throughout most of India. Some exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in northwestern regions of India, which continue west into eastern Pakistan. Moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in northern Pakistan and northern India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
On May 17th, 50 deaths were reported in western Afghanistan due to flash flooding. According to authorities, approximately 2,000 houses were destroyed, with thousands of other homes and businesses reporting flood related damage. Afghanistan has reported above-average rainfall this spring, as just a week prior, the country’s northern Baghlan province experienced similarly destructive flooding. "Fifty residents of Ghor province were killed by the floods on Friday and a number of others are missing," Badri said.

The U.N. recently warned that intense flooding will continue in Afghanistan, which will negatively impact food security throughout the country. Northeastern and northwestern provinces in the country have recently experienced flooding that has affected more than 80,000 of its citizens. Floods on May 10th and May 11th in the northeastern provinces of Badakhshan, Takhar and Baghlan killed 347 people, injured 1,651, and destroyed 7,800 houses. 14,000 livestock were lost and about 24,000 hectares of land was also destroyed. "The affected people are living in districts with higher food insecurity," said Ziauddin Safi, a spokesperson for WFP in Afghanistan. He continued, "the floods are caused by unusual rainfall after a dry winter that left the ground too hard to absorb the rain caused by the climate crisis."

A new study published in the journal Weather and Climate Dynamics found that seasonal shifts in western disturbances were occurring more frequently in summer months – a time when they were once rare. Western disturbances describe instances of winds that carry snow and rainfall to northern India during the winter months, and are important factors for regional water security across northern India. They have become twice as common in June in the past 20 years compared to the previous 50 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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