Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to linger in N, NE Australia

Australia & New Zealand: Surplus to linger in N, NE Australia

24 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that intense surpluses are expected to linger throughout northern Australia, in areas of the Northern Territory and Queensland. Surpluses are also anticipated in southeastern Australia, in New South Wales and Victoria. Deficits will continue in Tasmania and coastal regions of New Zealand. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northern Australia, in central to northern areas of Northern Territory, and throughout the Yorke Peninsula in Queensland. 

  • Southeastern Australia, in coastal regions of New South Wales near the city of Sydney, and in easternmost areas of Victoria. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Tasmania, covering western to central portions of the country.

  • Southeastern coastal regions of the South Island of New Zealand. Southern coastal regions of the North Island can expect similarly intense deficits. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail. 

FORECAST BREAKDOWN

The forecast through August 2024 anticipates that severe to exceptional surplus will continue throughout Northern Territory and the Yorke Peninsula. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to continue in coastal regions of eastern Victoria and southeastern New South Wales. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to continue in southern coastal regions of Victoria, northwestern regions of Tasmania, and along the southeastern to eastern coast of New Zealand’s South Island. 

From September through November 2024, surplus in northern Australia is expected to persist. Surpluses in southeastern Australia are expected to expand throughout most of eastern New South Wales and further into eastern to central Victoria. Deficits are expected to lessen in intensity in Tasmania and New Zealand, but remain as abnormal to moderate anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – indicates that intense surplus in northern Australia will dissipate, though surplus in southeastern Australia is expected to continue. Deficits in New Zealand are expected to downgrade further, becoming mostly abnormal anomalies.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

On June 8th, Sydney, Australia experienced flash flooding induced by heavy rainfall, prompting 13 rescues and 297 evacuations for citizens in low-lying suburban areas. New South Wales’ Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib reported that the flooding was worsened due to rain falling on swollen catchments, causing "a much more profound effect." "Our dams are full, our waterways are full, our grounds are saturated," Dib said in a recent televised news conference. The incident followed similarly destructive flooding earlier this April, when over 150 people were rescued from floodwaters in eastern Australia.

Roughly 1,000 Australians were evacuated from their homes in the town of Forbes due to intense flooding in central New South Wales. The State Emergency Service said the Lachlan River rose faster than expected, prompting an evacuation order in low-lying areas of Forbes – just two weeks after the area experienced similarly devastating floods. Emergency Services Minister Steph Cooke said that some residents had not yet returned home as more flooding was expected to hit the area. “It’s devastating for the Forbes community that they are experiencing this once again, and particularly in such a short period of time,” Cooke told reporters.

In Victoria, residents experienced prolonged displacement due to flash flooding and bushfires occurring successively in the same region. Victoria State Emergency Service deputy chief officer David Baker stated that roughly 130 homes had been damaged by flooding, which came days after abnormally high temperatures led to bushfires in the same region. "The good news is there is no more serious rain expected," stated Baker. "What we're dealing with now is what's currently in the river systems that will need to flush itself through."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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