Central Asia & Russia: Surplus continues in N, E Kazakhstan

Central Asia & Russia: Surplus continues in n, e Kazakhstan

24 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that most regions of Russia and Central Asia will experience near-normal to abnormal anomalies. However, much of the northern regions of Kazakhstan should anticipate widespread surpluses, as well as some eastern portions of the country. Sparse pockets of deficit are expected in western, northwestern, and southeastern Russia. 

Severe to extreme deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Western Russia, in southeastern regions of the Sverdlovsk Oblast. 

  • Northwestern Russia, throughout coastal regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug. 

  • Southeastern Russia, in the southern regions of the Irkutsk Oblast near Lake Baikal. Similar deficits are expected further east in central Zabaykalsky Krai. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northern Kazakhstan, spreading from the Aktobe Region into western areas of the Pavlodar Region. 

  • Eastern Kazakhstan, within the Kurshim District. 

  • Eastern Kyrgyzstan, within the Issyk-Kul Region.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts that deficits in Russia will decrease in size significantly, only remaining in southeastern regions of the Sverdlovsk Oblast, and in regions of the Irkutsk Oblast and Zabaykalsky Krai near Lake Baikal. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected to remain widespread throughout northern Kazakhstan, and in portions of eastern Kazakhstan. 

From September through November 2024, intense surplus is expected to continue in northern Kazakhstan. However, much of Russia is expected to observe mostly near-normal to abnormal anomalies. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates surpluses in northern Kazakhstan to mostly diminish, though some pockets of severe to extreme surpluses will remain in the area. The majority of the remaining regions will observe near-normal to abnormal anomalies. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Though Russia recently declared a crop emergency in ten regions due to frost damage which occurred in May, officials still maintain that it will meet export commitments. "We have already replanted almost 800,000 hectares," said Deputy of Agriculture Minister Andrei Razin. "All our obligations from the point of view of both domestic consumption and external export obligations will definitely be fulfilled." Andrei Razin, the Department of Agriculture Minister, said that the impact of weather problems on farm output would be offset, and that Moscow still anticipates to fulfill all of its export commitments. 

The Rostov region of southern Russia has declared a state of emergency as drought plagues its agricultural sector. The declaration aims to address potential crop losses, which are estimated to be nearly 30% by local governor Vasily Golubev. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture so far estimated crop losses from May frosts to equal nearly 1 million hectares, or about 1.2% of the total sown area. As of June 11th, Arkady Zlochevsky, the head of Russia's grain union, anticipated that frosts in Russia have affected between 15% and 30% of winter grains.

Kazakhstan is experiencing one of its worst natural disasters in the country’s history as rapid snowmelt and torrential rain causes catastrophic flooding across the country. Tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed, as well as local infrastructure, displacing families and causing intensive damage. Since March 2024, northern and western regions of Kazakhstan have experienced flooding, which caused widespread devastation and displaced over 119,000 people. The most affected areas include Abay, Akmol, Aktobe, Atyrau, West Kazak, Karagandy, Kostanay, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, and Ulytau. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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