Africa: Surplus to emerge along Sahel, SE Africa

Africa: Surplus to emerge along Sahel, SE Africa

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern and central regions of the continent. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected to appear along the Sahel and in some regions of southeastern Africa. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Eastern Mauritania, near the Ouadane region, spreading into the majority of Algeria, northern Mali, and Libya. Northern Niger and northern Chad will observe similarly intense deficits. 

  • Eastern regions of Sierra Leone, southern Guinea, and northern Liberia. Similar deficits are also expected nearby in southern coastal regions of Nigeria. 

  • Central African Republic, widespread throughout the country, continuing into the northern and central portions of Democratic Republic of Congo. Isolated pockets of similar deficits are anticipated in north-central Cameroon and northeastern Republic of Congo. 

  • Western Zambia, covering most of the region, which continues into northwestern Zimbabwe and western Botswana. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Regions along the Sahel, including central Chad, southern Sudan, and northern South Sudan. 

  • Western Kenya and Uganda, in areas surrounding Lake Victoria. 

  • Southeastern Tanzania, with the most intense anomalies appearing in the Lindi Region. 

  • Northern coastal regions of Madagascar, near the port city of Antsiranana. 

 The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts that exceptional deficits will expand throughout northern Africa, specifically in central Algeria, northern Mali, northwestern Niger, Libya, and southwestern Egypt. Similarly intense deficits will persist throughout the Congo Rainforest and in regions north of the Kalahari Desert. Moderate surpluses are expected along the Sahel, while extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in southern Tanzania, northwestern Angola, and northern coastal regions of Madagascar. 

From September through November 2024, exceptional deficits are expected to mostly diminish in northern Africa, though some pockets will remain in eastern Mauritania, northern Mali, and central to northwestern Algeria. Severe to exceptional deficits are expected to appear in southern Africa, within Zambia, Mozambique, Botswana, and Angola. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to expand southeast into most of Uganda, western Kenya, and Tanzania. Exceptional surpluses are expected to appear along the Nile. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates that most intense anomalies will dissipate throughout the continent. However, some moderate to severe surplus will continue in regions along the Sahel, specifically in South Sudan and southern Chad. Transitional conditions may appear in western portions of the Sahel. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS

The U.N. estimated that 60 million people in southern Africa are dealing with significant food insecurity as the El Nino-induced drought affects much of the region. Affected countries include Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Angola, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tazmania. World Food Program Executive Director Cindy McCain recently visited the region to assess the impact of drought and described it as a disaster. "These people have lost everything," she said in a recent interview. "They have no income. They have no way of surviving without assistance for the whole year because their next growing season will not be harvested until next May. These people depend on the stores they get from their crops, they didn’t get any this time."

Riots emerged in Algeria as water shortages and restrictions have plagued the city of Tiaret for months. Protestors wore balaclavas and set barricades blocking roads to protest the rationing implemented by the government. At a recent council meeting, President Bdelmajid Tebboune implored for emergency measurements to be taken in Tiaret, with ministers being sent to ask for apologies from the population and to promise that access to drinking water would soon be restored. Northern Africa as a whole has been among the world's worst-hit regions by climate change, with a multi-year drought draining the area’s reservoirs, as well significantly reducing the rainfall that has historically replenished them.

Food insecurity continues to ravage the Horn of Africa as communities in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan continue to deal with widespread famine. Five consecutive rain seasons have failed as the rate of rainfall in the area continues to be below average. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), “The Greater Horn of Africa faces a convergence of increasingly recurring and intensifying climate crises, mainly drought and flooding, conflicts, disease outbreaks, and economic shocks. These, including the impact of El Niño conditions, are driving millions of people into displacement, acute food insecurity and malnutrition, public health emergencies, and destitution.” 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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