South America: Deficits in W, Central, S Brazil continue

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that widespread exceptional deficits will decrease in size in Brazil, but still remain in western, central, and southern regions of the country. Deficits in the Bolivarian Nations will diminish in intensity, but still remain as moderate to severe deficits.

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas:

Eastern Colombia, within the department of Guainía, which continues into the Amazonas region of southern Venezuela. Northern coastal regions of Venezuela are expected to observe similar deficits, specifically near the city of Caracas.
Throughout northern coastal regions of the Guianas.
Eastern Peru, in southern regions of the Peruvian Amazon.
Western and southern Brazil, across the provinces of Acre, southern Amazonas, Rondonia, Para, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo. Paraguay can expect similarly intense deficits to cover most central to eastern portions of the country.
Northwestern Argentina, across western regions of the San Juan, La Rioja, Catamarca, Salta, and Jujuy provinces. These deficits continue into isolated pockets across northern Chile.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

Southern Peru, near the city of Cusco.
Eastern Brazil, in coastal regions of the Rio Grande de Norte and Bahia provinces.
Uruguay, in the northeastern regions of the country.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts that exceptional surplus will continue throughout western, central, and southern Brazil. These anomalies will spread further east into the states of Maranhao and Tocantins. Paraguay can expect widespread deficits to linger, as can eastern Peru, northwestern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, and northern Chile.

From September through November 2024, widespread exceptional deficits are expected to lessen in intensity throughout Brazil, becoming abnormal to moderate deficits in most places. Exceptional deficits may still linger in northeastern coastal regions of Brazil, as well as western regions, which spread into the Peruvian Amazon. Northern regions of the Guianas should expect extreme deficits to appear. In Venezuela, regions near Caracas will observe exceptional deficits, as will Trinidad and Tobago. Areas along the border of northwestern Argentina and northern Chile can expect similarly intense deficits.

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – indicates that most deficits throughout Brazil will resolve into near-normal conditions, though some regions of western Brazil will observe continued pockets of deficit. These deficits continue into eastern portions of the Peruvian Amazon.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Fires in the Brazilian Pantanal wetlands have increased nearly 980% above average this year, reaching the highest levels since the region’s worst blazes in history back in 2020. The figures have raised alarms as the region heads into the riskiest season for wildfires, which usually starts in July and peaks in August and September. "It's one of the worst starts of the year in terms of hot spots since the beginning of the historical series in 1998," said Vinicius Silgueiro, territorial -9*6+/intelligence coordinator at local NGO Instituto Centro de Vida. The Pantanal wetlands, roughly 10 times the size of the Florida everglades, are home to jaguars, tapirs, caimans, anacondas and giant anteaters. Weak rains since late last year have disrupted the usual seasonal flooding, leaving more of the region vulnerable to fires.

The ongoing drought in South America has significantly reduced the water levels in Lake Titicaca. One community, the Uros, have felt some of the most detrimental effects of the drought. Essential resources are becoming scarce, such as the totora reeds which the Uros use to build floating islands and maintain their homes. “We are going through a crisis,” said Nelson Coila Lujando, a member of the Uros community. "The reeds that we use to build our islands aren’t growing. The lake is drying up and we can’t move."

Local communities of the Bolivian Andes have begun to collectively pray for rain during the region’s intense drought. "The sun is burning, it's very strong, one can't even walk anymore, the heat in the countryside is even worse, and we don't have water either," said Rosa Sarmiento from Desaguadero in Peru near the banks of the mighty Lake Titicaca. "All the people are very worried. The drought has severely affected crop growth in Bolivia, as well as in Argentina, Paraguay, and Peru, and that there has been insignificant rain this season.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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