Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue in Mexico, Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Deficits continue in Mexico, Central America

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will dissipate in some northern regions of Mexico, but will remain present in northwestern, central, and southern regions of the country. 

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern Mexico, with the most intense anomalies appearing throughout Baja California Sur and the states of Chihuahua, Sonora, and Sinaloa.

  • East-central to southern Mexico,  throughout Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, and Puebla. These deficits continue into the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, and Chiapas. 

  • Central Guatemala, spanning much of the region, also covering Belize. 

  • Western Honduras, throughout the Cortes, Santa Barbara, and Copan departments in areas along the northeastern border of Nicaragua. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • Northwestern Mexico, in northern Baja California near Tijuana. 

  • Nicaragua, near the city of Managua. 

  • Costa Rica, near the city of Liberia.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in much of Mexico to resolve, leaving some lingering pockets in southern Baja California Sur, Sonora, and eastern coastal regions near Mexico City. Pockets of severe to extreme deficits are expected to linger in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, which span further east into central Guatemala, Belize, and northwestern Honduras. Moderate to severe surpluses are expected to appear along the western coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. 

From September through November 2024, most intense deficits in Mexico and Central America are expected to resolve. Some portions of northwestern Mexico can expect moderate to severe deficits, as well as eastern coastal regions near Mexico City. Belize is expected to observe continued severe deficits. Moderate to severe surplus is expected to spread throughout Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – expects near-normal conditions and abnormal deficits to continue across most of the region. Small pockets of exceptional deficits are expected in north-central and southwestern regions of Mexico. Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti may experience continued moderate to severe surplus.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
As Mexico continues to experience its worst drought in over a decade, officials have halted chemical production in order to divert water to communities. As the Mexican government requested industrial companies to reduce water intake, Chemours, an American chemical company, paused titanium dioxide production in Altamira, located in the state of Tamaulipas. Sabic, a Saudi chemical manufacturing company that makes ABS, polycarbonate, and other plastics in nearby Tampico, stated that “the local commission on drinking water and sewage issued a letter communicating it is no longer able to pump water to the local water system, which directly impacts industries in the Altamira region.” As a result, the company will temporarily shut down its Tampico site.

Thousands of dead fish have surfaced in a lagoon located in the Mexican state of Chihuahua. Local authorities blame intense drought for the mass deaths. Temperatures in Bustillos Lagoon reportedly reached 104 degrees Fahrenheit, as well as dangerously low water levels. “There was much less water in the lagoon for the fish to live in, and the remaining water was of poor quality,” said Irma de la Pena, head of the Ecology Department in the city of Cuauhtemoc. "When the amount of water decreases, the pollutants become more concentrated and therefore they also affect the species that live here," De la Pena said.

Water levels are dwindling in the Cutzamala system, which provides nearly 25% of water to Mexico City’s residents. As of mid-May, the system was at 28 percent of its capacity, a historic low. Millions of people are facing water rations, with some only receiving water for an hour or less each week. “In Mexico City, there is a historical and critical issue of inequality in the access to water,” Fernanda Mac Gregor, a climate change researcher at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, tells the Washington Post. “We are already facing many warnings and they will continue to worsen, and not only in terms of water and climate change, but in terms of inequality and poverty.”

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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