Europe: Surplus endures in W, C Europe

Europe: Surplus endures in W, C Europe

25 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that existing surpluses across Europe will mostly resolve, with some persisting in portions of western and central countries. Several eastern European countries can anticipate deficits of varying intensity. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are anticipated in:

  • France, covering most of the country, with the highest concentrations appearing near the Gironde Estuary and within the Hautes-Alpes department. 

  • Throughout the majority of the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg.

  • Northern Italy, across Lombardy, Vicenza, and Piedmont regions. These anomalies continue into Lichtenstein and western Austria, near the city of Innsbruck. 

  • Ukraine, in areas surrounding the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir. 

Exceptional deficits are expected in the following countries: 

  • Spain, with exceptional deficits covering most of the country’s eastern coast. 

  • Romania, in areas northeast of the city of Bucharest. 

  • Eastern coastal regions of Italy, throughout the Province of Foggia. Similar deficits are also expected in Greece throughout the Aegean Islands. 

  • Western Serbia, near the Mačva District. 

  • Western and eastern Ukraine, within the Lviv and Luhansk Oblasts. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts surpluses to continue in southwestern France, with the most intense anomalies continuing near the Gironde Estuary. These surpluses are expected to continue throughout the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. Similar anomalies are expected in northern Italy, within the Lombardy region. Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected to linger in southern coastal regions of Italy, western Serbia, and in northern Montenegro. Deficits of comparable intensity are expected to occur in western and eastern Ukraine, eastern Spain near the Tarragona province, and southern coastal regions of Sicily and Portugal. 

From September through November 2024, most intense anomalies are expected to resolve, with some abnormal to moderate deficits occurring in eastern Europe, including eastern Lithuania and western Belarus. Eastern Slovenia can expect similarly intense deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates near-normal conditions to continue across most of Europe, though pockets of moderate surplus may appear in the Czech Republic. 

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Torrential rain caused fatal floods in Germany earlier this month, which killed five people in Germany and spread through Austria and Hungary. In Austria, the entire Danube was closed after its banks burst in Linz, the country's third-largest city. Due to the extreme weather, the river was shut down for shipping, which flows over 150 miles of Austria. Markus Söder, the minister-president of Bavaria, announced that the state government will provide at least €100 million in financial aid for those affected. 

Following decades of increasingly frequent flooding, a new study found that Venice is at risk of becoming permanently underwater by 2150. The research was carried out by experts at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), which analyzed tide level data. The increase was found to vary in different areas of the city, with 4.22 millimeters on the Lido island to 5 millimeters at Malamocco. Researchers combined these findings with land subsidence data recorded between 2008 and 2023. 

In the Spanish city of Murcia, agricultural areas were damaged after torrential rains hit the area. Initially, 25 liters of rainfall was expected, though over 50 liters per square meter accumulated in just one hour in northwestern areas. The Calasparra and Altiplano regions were the worst affected, with between 60 to 65 liters per square meter falling in just one hour. Farmers reported intensive damage to local agriculture and infrastructure. "The olives have all been thrown away, as well as the vegetables that were planted there. It has destroyed everything," said one farmer. The mayor of Calasparra, Teresa Garcia, reported that they "lost many kilos of fruit, more than 15,000 hectares affected between the towns of Cieza and Calasparra."

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.