South Asia: Surplus continues in S India

South Asia: Surplus continues in S India

17 July 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in March 2025 indicates that intense surpluses will continue in southern India. Surpluses in western to central India will expand, as well deficits in northernmost India. 

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

  • India, with the most intense concentrations appearing in the states of Kerala and Karnataka. Further north, severe surpluses are expected in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. 

  • Afghanistan, appearing in areas near the city of Kabul. 

  • Southwestern Pakistan, within the Balochistan province. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in the following areas: 

  • Northern India, across northern regions of Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh. 

  • Bangladesh, throughout most central and northern portions of the country. 

  • Southwestern Nepal, with the most intense anomalies occurring in the Kanchanpur Province. 

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through September 2024 anticipates exceptional deficits in northwestern India to dissipate, with moderate to severe surpluses instead appearing across the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Similarly intense surpluses will continue further south, in the states of Kerala and Karnataka, as well as across Sri Lanka. Pockets of moderate to severe surplus will also persist in areas along the shared border of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Intense deficits are expected to spread across northernmost states of India, specifically in Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh. 

From October through December 2024, deficits are expected to reemerge in northwestern India, as well as in east-central regions of Pakistan. Deficits will also continue in northernmost regions of India. Surpluses across the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan will continue, as well as in southern India, throughout Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. 

The forecast for the final months – January 2025 through March 2025 – anticipates surpluses in western India to change to transitional conditions. Moderate surpluses in central and southern India will continue, as will deficits in northernmost India.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A series of devastating storms brought flash floods to eastern Afghanistan, which caused at least 47 deaths as of July 16th. Along with the fatalities, another 350 were injured, as well as hundreds of homes destroyed. Jalalabad city, the capital of the Nangarhar province, and surrounding areas observed the most severe damage. The floods isolated Afghani communities, rendering residents without access to basic services and increased susceptibility to infectious diseases. "Public health personnel have been ordered to provide health services with full sincerity in order to prevent the spread of diseases and provide the best health service to the injured," Sharafat Zaman, a spokesman for the ministry, said in a statement.

In New Delhi, sudden heavy rainfall caused deadly flash flooding in the midst of one of the city’s worst heat waves in its history, with temperatures reaching 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Nearly 9 inches of rainfall fell in a 24-hour period, which is the most recorded in one June day in 88 years. The rain also surpassed the city’s average for the whole month. At least 11 deaths were reported, with four people drowning in submerged underpasses. The rain caused a portion of the roof of New Delhi’s airport to collapse, which crushed one man to death and caused eight injuries. 

Over 130 wild animals, including six rare rhinos, died in a flash flood at the Kaziranga National Park in Assam, India. The animals, most of whom died by drowning, include 117 hog deer, two sambar deer, a rhesus macaque and an otter. Officials reported that 97 animals were rescued from flood waters, with 25 receiving medical care and 52 having been released after treatment. Kaziranga holds the world’s largest population of one-horned rhinos, which were in danger of extinction after being exhaustively hunted in the early 20th century.  

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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